Track Set Randomness

mikes

I know which track set comes up is completely random, but I've been noticing something lately and wanted to bring it to Hutch's attention. Sometimes, it seems an event gets stuck in a rut and keeps selecting the same track or two over and over again.

In the current Rare event, after seeing the four track sets, I have now raced 10 straight races (within 30 minutes) and pulled one track set 7 seven times and a second set 3 times. The other two have been MIA this entire run. That seems pretty lucky (or unlucky in this case).

In other events I've noticed similar runs of one track set for several straight races as well.

mikes

Success! I complain and suddenly my next round I get one of those other two track sets. #HutchIsWatching

TD42792

I have been experincing the same. Wondering if it depends what track other players are “defending” on?

Bubblegum

I noted the following, If you swap any car. The track will 100% change. (coincidently to something that is less suitable for your cars set) . Maybe thinkng too much. 

bullet_splatter

Bubblegum said:

I noted the following, If you swap any car. The track will 100% change. (coincidently to something that is less suitable for your cars set) . Maybe thinkng too much. 

This has always been my experience. 

TopDives

bullet_splatter said:

Bubblegum said:

I noted the following, If you swap any car. The track will 100% change. (coincidently to something that is less suitable for your cars set) . Maybe thinkng too much. 

This has always been my experience. 

I've noticed that also. I thought it was just bad luck.

BoxtaS

In the Mercedes 2nd chance finals, I saw the set with the 0-100-0 race twice out of about 60 races. Incidentally it was the one that suited my hand best. 

Ive also noticed that if you keep getting wet track sets, so you swap in another 4WD or standard tyre car, the wet tracks will instantly be gone. I certainly don’t feel that they’re random.

also, with diverse rare as an example, whenever I get the drag race set, every competitor has the el Camino, but never has it on any other set. Is that because they quit match if they come to that set again without the right line up? Perhaps I’m playing wrong!? 

CometDan

In my last 5 tickets on the rare event I’ve just had the 2x Rallycross set 5 times. This happens to be my weakest set.

bantel_cat

CometDan said:

In my last 5 tickets on the rare event I’ve just had the 2x Rallycross set 5 times. This happens to be my weakest set.

Yep exactly the same happened to me (but with 2 x Hill Climb - my weakest).
Obviously, with such a small sample set you can't say too much with a degree of certainty but it certainly looks like this is nowhere near completely random. It has happened a lot where I get the same track set 5 times in a row, odds of that I reckon are 0.25^4= 1 in 256.
If I only I was so 'lucky' with my pack pulls 

flight4590

Why do drag only track sets exist in daily?  It’s stupid if you don’t have a number of high top speed fast accel cars...

Zaphod

I've been pondering about this quite a lot. I remember one common event where there was one set on ice and snow which I had the suitable hand, and I played something like 15 races in a row without getting that set. After that it was fairly even spread.

I'm guessing they are using a normal random pick from the track sets, but the problem with normal random is that in small sample sets it's fairly likely that you get uneven distribution, and if the track selection is affected by what defensive replays are available it will make it more likely that the track selection get skewed.

Also I'd be curious to know whether it would theoretically be possible to manipulate the selection by not racing a certain track set. As in, if there are three sets of asphalt and one snow would the snow one appear less if all players just quit instead of racing when they were given the snow set.