General Discussion

Worst run of luck?

bantel_catbantel_cat Member Posts: 381 ✭✭✭
So I started logging all Ceramic and Cf openings a little while back.
OK I got lucky pulling a 911Turbo S in my Porsche CF but my Ceramic/Premium luck is horrible. Since I pulled an Epic a couple of weeks back (naff RQ23 Porsche but Epic nonetheless) I have gone 25 packs with no Ultra Rare or better.

Ceramics have an 18% chance of B or better and Premiums around 14%.
So chucking 16% (for the mixture of packs) into a Binomial calculator shows you are only 1.3% likely for this to happen. Feeling blessed!.
'Looking forward' to get to 30 now to get to really minimal odds. 

What has been your 'best' streak?

Comments

  • evilprofesseurevilprofesseur Member Posts: 336 ✭✭✭
    that figure might be true for a 25 pack long streak but this is not the case is it? If you consider you've already opened probably upwards of 200 packs or more a dry run at some point becomes significantly more likely, if not inevitable.
  • bantel_catbantel_cat Member Posts: 381 ✭✭✭
    that figure might be true for a 25 pack long streak but this is not the case is it? If you consider you've already opened probably upwards of 200 packs or more a dry run at some point becomes significantly more likely, if not inevitable.
    Yeah for sure, if I expand it to the 93 packs I have logged then the stats are better. 11 B or higher (1A mentioned before), still unlucky though, 88% of the time you would expect more than 11.

    I'm not questioning drop rates at all, I trust them. Plus the sample size is still small to look for significance but I was just curious .
  • TGPDTGPD Member Posts: 4,393 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Once I had a run of almost 2 months without anything above C from Ceramic, I've opened about 50 ceramics. At the end I got desparate and stop opening ceramics until a Mustang dropped.
  • 43MK443MK4 Member Posts: 1,292 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Here is some more data from my recent big ceramic opening. I saved 3.000.000 and purchased ceramics for all of it. 80% USA and 20% normal.
    Got 0 legends, 3 epics and 19 ultrarares.
  • RobGripesRobGripes Member Posts: 1,653 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My last 100 packs have yielded 85 C, 11 B, 4 A (Speaking purely in terms of the top card, not counting doubles etc)

    in this period the two worst runs are 17 and 32 packs without anything above a C. Just before the 100 packs run I had another bad run of 26 packs without anything above a C, then this 100 pack run started with 4 Epics in about 10 packs. Those were good times!
  • mazeoopsmazeoops Member Posts: 721 ✭✭✭
    I spend 700k and got only 1 UR...no epic and up
  • binnerbinner Member Posts: 207 ✭✭✭
    My count is up to 397 ceramics opened:

    c class = 452
    b class = 60
    a class = 13
    s class = 3
  • HeissRodHeissRod Member Posts: 3,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Since I started recording openings 54 Ceramics ago (both bought & event wins), these are my stats.
    Super Rare - 65
    Ultra Rare - 7
    Epic - 3
    Legendary - 2
  • iron_styleiron_style Member Posts: 133 ✭✭✭
    In the last 2 packs of daily rewards I am very lucky. In Sunday I got one Escort Rally spec from 2 seat aluminium pack, and today I win a Maxi Turbo from ceramic Renault. In the other hand, I bought about 10-12 ceramics since the update, getting only crappy C cars
  • RobGripesRobGripes Member Posts: 1,653 ✭✭✭✭✭
    HeissRod said:
    Since I started recording openings 54 Ceramics ago (both bought & event wins), these are my stats.
    Super Rare - 65
    Ultra Rare - 7
    Epic - 3
    Legendary - 2

    What's your secret?
  • HeissRodHeissRod Member Posts: 3,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    RobGripes said:
    HeissRod said:
    Since I started recording openings 54 Ceramics ago (both bought & event wins), these are my stats.
    Super Rare - 65
    Ultra Rare - 7
    Epic - 3
    Legendary - 2

    What's your secret?
    If I told you, it wouldn't be a secret?
  • RobGripesRobGripes Member Posts: 1,653 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 10
    HeissRod said:
    RobGripes said:
    HeissRod said:
    Since I started recording openings 54 Ceramics ago (both bought & event wins), these are my stats.
    Super Rare - 65
    Ultra Rare - 7
    Epic - 3
    Legendary - 2

    What's your secret?
    If I told you, it wouldn't be a secret?

    PM me!!!  :D

    I can keep a secret!
  • grandvachegrandvache Member Posts: 1,440 ✭✭✭✭✭
    43MK4 said:
    Here is some more data from my recent big ceramic opening. I saved 3.000.000 and purchased ceramics for all of it. 80% USA and 20% normal.
    Got 0 legends, 3 epics and 19 ultrarares.
    USA premium's don't have the same drop rate as ceramics.
  • LittleEnosBurdetteLittleEnosBurdette Member Posts: 1,795 ✭✭✭✭✭
    binner said:
    My count is up to 397 ceramics opened:

    c class = 452
    b class = 60
    a class = 13
    s class = 3
    I’ve opened about the same amount of Carbon packs as you have ceramics and I’ve only pulled 2 legendary cars more than you. 😄
  • prexprex Member Posts: 624 ✭✭✭✭
    392 ceramics (no premiums or specials)
    -E------D-----C-----B---A--S
    1035 395 463 50 13 4 (got)
    1054 367 468 57 11 3 (expected)
  • binnerbinner Member Posts: 207 ✭✭✭
    binner said:
    My count is up to 397 ceramics opened:

    c class = 452
    b class = 60
    a class = 13
    s class = 3
    I’ve opened about the same amount of Carbon packs as you have ceramics and I’ve only pulled 2 legendary cars more than you. 😄
    My carbon count is at 57 opened:

    B class = 50 
    A class = 14
    S class = 0

    I’m on pace to never get any from carbons 🙌🏻

  • baestbaest Member Posts: 338 ✭✭✭
    edited October 10
    I've just put together a spreadsheet so I can start keeping track of my pack openings too, should be intriguing
  • RobGripesRobGripes Member Posts: 1,653 ✭✭✭✭✭
    prex said:
    392 ceramics (no premiums or specials)
    -E------D-----C-----B---A--S
    1035 395 463 50 13 4 (got)
    1054 367 468 57 11 3 (expected)

    Wow that is mightily close! 
  • DoupaoDoupao Member Posts: 319 ✭✭✭
    all i remember is i have got a 675lt, a veyron ss and s8+ from ceramic, how many packs? i dont remember, but at least above 100
  • lg29lg29 Member Posts: 502 ✭✭✭
    My best ceramic pull was a Pagani Huayra... I got it from the 25 garage slots deal. The only other good cars that I got from a ceramic (end of event) was an RQ23 Infinity (I forgot the name). I think I might have gotten my Evo FQ-360 from a end-of-event ceramic, but I don't remember.
  • mauro07mauro07 Member Posts: 1,583 ✭✭✭✭
    my only S cars pulls and the majority of my A class pulls are from Ceramic (few A in CF) but i don't see S from my pulls long since
  • sinnersinner Member Posts: 679 ✭✭✭✭
    I nearly posted in here last night saying that i haven't pulled anything above a super rare in about 30 ceramics or so. Then i get this, great, but its my 6th RQ 27 legendary tho :(
  • HeissRodHeissRod Member Posts: 3,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    sinner said:
    I nearly posted in here last night saying that i haven't pulled anything above a super rare in about 30 ceramics or so. Then i get this, great, but its my 6th RQ 27 legendary tho :(
    Low RQ Legendaries are actually kind of handy, for limited RQ events.  They allow the power of a Legendary, at 2-3 points less, which allows you to run stronger lower cars.
  • Steph81Steph81 Member Posts: 165 ✭✭✭
    HeissRod said:
    sinner said:
    I nearly posted in here last night saying that i haven't pulled anything above a super rare in about 30 ceramics or so. Then i get this, great, but its my 6th RQ 27 legendary tho :(
    Low RQ Legendaries are actually kind of handy, for limited RQ events.  They allow the power of a Legendary, at 2-3 points less, which allows you to run stronger lower cars.
    and in 99% there is a maxed RQ26 Epic, which crashes your RQ27 Legendary in every track
  • joel24joel24 Member Posts: 488 ✭✭✭
    TGPD said:
    Whenever I buy US premiums:

    My luck essentially
    I opened 2 us premiums after the update . Pulled a dodge srt .....6 (super rare) and that rq 15 vette ( c4? )
  • TopDrives20409TopDrives20409 Member Posts: 334 ✭✭✭
    As posted in the ‘Best Pulls’ thread, my luck recently has been pretty good. I’ve opened 30 Ceramics in the last couple of weeks and got:

    Plus half a dozen Bs, including an XFR-S Sportbrake and a 911RS, neither of which I had before. Pretty happy with that. 
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