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Sharing my ‘pain ‘: duplicate legendaries as F2P

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  • TwinkieTwinkie Member Posts: 83 ✭✭
    drop rates for ceramic pack
  • mauro07mauro07 Member Posts: 1,040 ✭✭✭✭
    mmmm i think no... if you buy one pack or 100 you have same chance to find an A class... you open the first pack and no A, the second have the same % to find an A class, not plus or minus... always the same... every pack... obviously if you buy 1 pack or 1 milion, you find more A class in 1 milion packs but not sure, you can buy 1 milion packs and find only C class because the chance to find an A class not depending on how many packs you buy!!!
  • prexprex Member Posts: 481 ✭✭✭
    edited June 14
    mauro07 said:
    mmmm i think no... if you buy one pack or 100 you have same chance to find an A class... you open the first pack and no A, the second have the same % to find an A class, not plus or minus... always the same... every pack... obviously if you buy 1 pack or 1 milion, you find more A class in 1 milion packs but not sure, you can buy 1 milion packs and find only C class because the chance to find an A class not depending on how many packs you buy!!!
    You’re talking about the probability per pack, so one A in one pack. Right, that’s constant. But, we’re talking about the overall probability in a sequence of pack openings, so one A in multiple packs. The latter will rise with the number of packs you’re opening. Of course, it will never reach 100%, it will never be „sure“ you get even one out of multiple packs.
  • mauro07mauro07 Member Posts: 1,040 ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 14
    but don't exist overall probability because it does not increase after that you buy the first pack, or the second or the 100th... it's not like a box with 100 b@lls and you take one and then you have 99 b@lls... so the probability increase... so the % is always the same...
  • GsearchGsearch Member, Wrenchmen, Senior Wrenchmen Posts: 1,818 ✭✭✭✭✭
    mauro07 said:
    but don't exist overall probability because it does not increase after that you buy the first pack, or the second or the 100th... it's not like a box with 100 b@lls and you take one and then you have 99 b@lls... so the probability increase... so the % is always the same...
    Sorry.. I was in the middle of editing your post because the filter is somewhat weird like that when you fixed it first. lol.
  • mauro07mauro07 Member Posts: 1,040 ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 14
    i see this censorship and i don't undestand why...
    then i use
    ;         LOL
  • willcf15willcf15 Member Posts: 254 ✭✭✭
    edited June 14

    Look at it this way:

    Let's say you're flipping a coin. If you flip it once, you have a 50% chance of getting heads, and a 50% chance of getting tails. But what if you flip it 4 times, and all you care about is that at least one of those coin flips is heads? The probability is certainly much higher than just flipping the coin once.

    The easiest way to approach this is to find the probability that you get zero heads (so all tails), and subtract that from 1. So for this example:

    P(>0 heads) = 1 - P(0 heads) = 1 - P(4 tails) = 1 - (0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5) = 1 - (0.5^4) = 1 - 0.0625 = 0.9375 = 93.75%

    The calculation that prex and I did is just an extension of that logic.

  • mauro07mauro07 Member Posts: 1,040 ✭✭✭✭
    nope.. it's the same probability.. 50%... this logic cannot work in this way... every launch, every pack buy have same % ... don't increase if you launch the coin one time or 1000 times as for 1 Ceramic or 100 ceramic, always the same %
  • willcf15willcf15 Member Posts: 254 ✭✭✭
    It has to though, otherwise there would be no point in buying more than one pack ever. You're still talking about individual pack probability, not the compounded probability of opening many packs.

    You should try the coin flipping example, and see how often you get at least 1 heads out of 4 flips. I expect if you do that for 10 minutes and record your results, I you'll get pretty close to that 93.75% number. Just make sure you record after each set of 4, not each time you get heads or anything weird like that.
  • GsearchGsearch Member, Wrenchmen, Senior Wrenchmen Posts: 1,818 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 14
    @mauro07 That is absolutely correct.  Probability of independent events increase as the number of attempts increase.

    The probability of getting the desired results EACH event remain the same, however if you are attempting to get one result in multiple attempts, the probability goes up with each added event.
  • grandvachegrandvache Member Posts: 886 ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 15
    willcf15 said:
    It has to though, otherwise there would be no point in buying more than one pack ever. You're still talking about individual pack probability, not the compounded probability of opening many packs.

    You should try the coin flipping example, and see how often you get at least 1 heads out of 4 flips. I expect if you do that for 10 minutes and record your results, I you'll get pretty close to that 93.75% number. Just make sure you record after each set of 4, not each time you get heads or anything weird like that.
    ****.  Stop with the maths.  You're giving me a man crush.
    Post edited by Gsearch on
  • willcf15willcf15 Member Posts: 254 ✭✭✭
    willcf15 said:
    It has to though, otherwise there would be no point in buying more than one pack ever. You're still talking about individual pack probability, not the compounded probability of opening many packs.

    You should try the coin flipping example, and see how often you get at least 1 heads out of 4 flips. I expect if you do that for 10 minutes and record your results, I you'll get pretty close to that 93.75% number. Just make sure you record after each set of 4, not each time you get heads or anything weird like that.
    Wilf.  Stop with the maths.  You're giving me a man crush.
    Awwww thanks. But save some love for @prex, I was way too lazy to show all my work haha
  • TwinkieTwinkie Member Posts: 83 ✭✭
    edited June 15
    prex said:
    Twinkie said:
    So your tellin me u have a 25% chance to get 1 Epic in 8 ceramic packs?
    The drop rates for an epic are about 2.5% so thats not possible at all
    We were talking about the probability to get an A or better. Of course, you’re right, the probability to get exactly one A is smaller, but not that small. Here you go: 

    Thats what Hutch states about chances in a ceramic: 

    Coming from that, chances to get an A as 1st card (and anything else for cards 2-5, including the case of two A‘s) are: 2.5%
    Chances to get an A as 2nd card (and anything else for cards 1 and 3-5, including the case of two A‘s) are: 0.25%
    Chances to get an A as 1st and as 2nd card (two in one pack) are: 2.5% * 0.25% = 0.00625%
    Thus, chances to get an A as 1st or 2nd card (excluding the case of two A‘s in one pack) are: 
    2.5% - 0.00625% + 0.25% - 0.00625% = 2.7375% = 0.027375

    To expand that to 8 packs, we will use the complementary probability, i.e., the probability to get anything but a combination with exactly one A, as it’s easier to use: 1 - 0.027375 = 0.972625

    For 8 packs, we need to adjust that to the power of 8: 0.972625^8 = 0.800873 ~ 80.09%

    Like said, that’s the probability to get any combination of cards except these having exactly one A, in 8 packs. We are interested in the contrary, that’s: 1 - 0.800873 = 0.199127 ~ 19.91%

    Usually everybody’s fine with a result even better than an A. That’s why we stated 25%. Calculated as follows:
    Again, to calculate this we use the complementary probability, which is to get anything up to B in one pack: 

    probability 1st card to get anything up to B * prob. 2nd card * prob. 3rd card * prob. 4th card * prob. 5th card
    = (100% - 2.5% - 0.65%) * (100% - 0.25% - 0.1%) * 100% * 100% * 100%
    = (1 - 0.025 - 0.0065) * (1 - 0.0025 - 0.001) * 1 * 1 * 1
    = 0.968 * 0.9965 * 1 * 1 * 1
    = 0.9651 = 96.51%

    Thus, chances to get the contrary, one A or better, are: 
    1 - 0.9651 = 0.0349 = 3.49%

    To get the probability for a number of 8 packs we simply calculate: 
    0.9651^8 = 0.7526 = 75.26%

    Again, this is the complementary probability thus the probability we are looking for is: 
    1 - 0.7526 = 0.2474 = 24.74%
    This cant be right...  if u have a chance to get an a of 2.7% there is no way u can have a chance of 25% of getting an a in 8 ceramics... even if u just multiply 2.7 with 8 and that would be asolutely bs
    And further to that.... im getting an a or s in about every 40 - 50 packs tho...

    Edit: ok now i got it you were talking about the chance to get an a or better and not an a so your calculation does make sense😄
    Post edited by Twinkie on
  • grandvachegrandvache Member Posts: 886 ✭✭✭✭
    willcf15 said:
    willcf15 said:
    It has to though, otherwise there would be no point in buying more than one pack ever. You're still talking about individual pack probability, not the compounded probability of opening many packs.

    You should try the coin flipping example, and see how often you get at least 1 heads out of 4 flips. I expect if you do that for 10 minutes and record your results, I you'll get pretty close to that 93.75% number. Just make sure you record after each set of 4, not each time you get heads or anything weird like that.
    Wilf.  Stop with the maths.  You're giving me a man crush.
    Awwww thanks. But save some love for @prex, I was way too lazy to show all my work haha
    Sorry Prex, your working got me all worked up too.

    #statslove4ever
  • Hutch_IanHutch_Ian Member, Hutch Staff Posts: 221 Wrenchman
    You can still use the duplicates in a race. It may look a bit more dull but that's 3 really solid cars to play in your hand.
  • Ivo_KamburovIvo_Kamburov Member Posts: 127 ✭✭✭
    Hutch_Ian said:
    You can still use the duplicates in a race. It may look a bit more dull but that's 3 really solid cars to play in your hand.
    Solid for what? Drag racing vs other Lotuses? 
  • GsearchGsearch Member, Wrenchmen, Senior Wrenchmen Posts: 1,818 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hutch_Ian said:
    You can still use the duplicates in a race. It may look a bit more dull but that's 3 really solid cars to play in your hand.
    Solid for what? Drag racing vs other Lotuses? 
    I agree, unless it is a lotus event, I see no real use for this car.   It is beaten by so many A's, let alone other S;s.
  • GilTrucksGilTrucks Member Posts: 157 ✭✭✭
    sinner said:
    Got it
    Até aqui isso?!?!?!? É universal! kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk
  • ljhcjpljhcjp Member Posts: 200 ✭✭✭
    So much love for the thread 😂😍
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