Italian CF Pack Contents
Some of you, if you've been around long enough, will remember the days where I shared calculations nobody cared about fairly frequently. Since then, I lost the laptop with all those spreadsheets in it, so I gave up for a bit.
But, like that rash on your backside, I can't be gotten rid of that easily, and I have returned. This time, I've even used google sheets, so all you lovely people can point out my mistakes.
I was taking a look at the Italian CF packs, and realized that there are very few high-class Italian Cars. It's time I made good on a promise to analyze how easy it is to single out a car from a given pack.
So, for the Italian CF packs that are available to be won in the Pagani Qualifiers, and may be able to be bought later, here are your chances of getting that car you wanted:
The Huayra: 0.60% (Same number for any other S class)
The Giulia Quadrifoglio 0.60% (This is the only non-Pagani S-class)
One of the four Paganis: 2.39% (Wow!)
The Alfa 4C: 20.01% (!) (This is the only A class)
The Lancia Delta Integrale Evoluzione II: 20.32% (Same for any other B class)
The Alfa Giulia Veloce 20.32% (This is the only non-Lancia B-class)
One of the 3 B-Class Delta's: 60.95% (!)
Any 1 particular C class: 7.44% (pretty high for one car)*
An Alfa: 37.19%
A Fiat: 29.75% (This is the same as the overall chance to get a fiat, as there are none over C class)
A Lancia: 22.31%
TWO Paganis: 0.008%
*This does not include the chance to get an Italian car from one of the three unfiltered car slots. A rough calculation puts this at less than 2% for any of the three to be an Italian C class.
This all banks on the assumption that all cars within a rarity tier are equally likely to be selected. If this is not the case, these numbers do not apply. Hutch's probability tables only include the probability of a car within a class. I think it's unlikely, but hypothetically possible, that the selection process goes RQ -> Car, or Rarity -> RQ -> Car, rather than just Rarity -> Car. I'd dismiss this totally, however, the outcome of the glitched Audi packs implied that one of these may have been the case, and I am unsure how that glitch was fixed.
For anyone who wants to see the spreadsheet:
Until next time guys
Post edited by willcf15 on
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