Italian CF Pack Contents

willcf15willcf15 Posts: 341 ✭✭✭
edited May 2018 in General Discussion
Some of you, if you've been around long enough, will remember the days where I shared calculations nobody cared about fairly frequently. Since then, I lost the laptop with all those spreadsheets in it, so I gave up for a bit.

But, like that rash on your backside, I can't be gotten rid of that easily, and I have returned. This time, I've even used google sheets, so all you lovely people can point out my mistakes.

I was taking a look at the Italian CF packs, and realized that there are very few high-class Italian Cars. It's time I made good on a promise to analyze how easy it is to single out a car from a given pack.

So, for the Italian CF packs that are available to be won in the Pagani Qualifiers, and may be able to be bought later, here are your chances of getting that car you wanted:

The Huayra: 0.60% (Same number for any other S class)
The Giulia Quadrifoglio 0.60% (This is the only non-Pagani S-class)
One of the four Paganis: 2.39% (Wow!)
The Alfa 4C: 20.01% (!) (This is the only A class)
The Lancia Delta Integrale Evoluzione II: 20.32% (Same for any other B class)
The Alfa Giulia Veloce 20.32% (This is the only non-Lancia B-class)
One of the 3 B-Class Delta's: 60.95% (!)
Any 1 particular C class: 7.44% (pretty high for one car)*
          An Alfa: 37.19%
          A Fiat: 29.75% (This is the same as the overall chance to get a fiat, as there are none over C class)
          A Lancia: 22.31%

TWO Paganis: 0.008%

*This does not include the chance to get an Italian car from one of the three unfiltered car slots. A rough calculation puts this at less than 2% for any of the three to be an Italian C class.

This all banks on the assumption that all cars within a rarity tier are equally likely to be selected. If this is not the case, these numbers do not apply. Hutch's probability tables only include the probability of a car within a class. I think it's unlikely, but hypothetically possible, that the selection process goes RQ -> Car, or Rarity -> RQ -> Car, rather than just Rarity -> Car. I'd dismiss this totally, however, the outcome of the glitched Audi packs implied that one of these may have been the case, and I am unsure how that glitch was fixed.

For anyone who wants to see the spreadsheet:


Until next time guys :)
Post edited by willcf15 on
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Comments

  • AntounAntoun Posts: 1,175 ✭✭✭✭✭
    willcf15 said:
    Some of you, if you've been around long enough, will remember the days where I shared calculations nobody cared about fairly frequently. Since then, I lost the laptop with all those spreadsheets in them, so I gave up for a bit.

    But, like that rash on your backside, I can't be gotten rid of that easily, and I have returned. This time, I've even used google sheets, so all you lovely people can point out my mistakes.

    I was taking a look at the Italian CF packs, and realized that there are very few high-class Italian Cars. It's time I made good on a promise to analyze how easy it is to single out a car from a given pack.

    So, for the Italian CF packs that are available to be won in the Pagani Qualifiers, and may be able to be bought later, here are your chances of getting that car you wanted:

    The Huayra: 0.60% (Same number for any other S class)
    The Giulia Quadrifoglio 0.60% (This is the only non-Pagani S-class)
    One of the four Paganis: 2.39% (Wow!)
    The Alfa 4C: 20.01% (!) (This is the only A class)
    The Lancia Delta Integrale Evoluzione II: 20.32% (Same for any other B class)
    The Alfa Giulia Veloce 20.32% (This is the only non-Lancia B-class)
    One of the 3 B-Class Delta's: 60.95% (!)
    Any 1 particular C class: 7.44% (pretty high for one car)*
              An Alfa: 37.19%
              A Fiat: 29.75% (This is the same as the overall chance to get a fiat, as there are none over C class)
              A Lancia: 22.31%

    TWO Paganis: 0.008%

    *This does not include the chance to get an Italian car from one of the three unfiltered car slots. A rough calculation puts this at less than 2% for any of the three to be an Italian C class.

    This all banks on the assumption that all cars within a rarity tier are equally likely to be selected. If this is not the case, these numbers do not apply. Hutch's probability tables only include the probability of a car within a class. I think it's unlikely, but hypothetically possible, that the selection process goes RQ -> Car, or Rarity -> RQ -> Car, rather than just Rarity -> Car. I'd dismiss this totally, however, the outcome of the glitched Audi packs implied that one of these may have been the case, and I am unsure how that glitch was fixed.

    For anyone who wants to see the spreadsheet:


    Until next time guys :)
    Wow !!! And do you sleep with your calculator ? Lol
  • AJTheCaveManAJTheCaveMan Posts: 1,366 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Very cool. I hope people post those results here.
  • willcf15willcf15 Posts: 341 ✭✭✭
    Antoun said:
    willcf15 said:
    [Omitted for length]
    Wow !!! And do you sleep with your calculator ? Lol
    Oh yeah ;)
  • AvengedAvenged Posts: 505 ✭✭✭✭
    willcf15 said:

    This all banks on the assumption that all cars within a rarity tier are equally likely to be selected. If this is not the case, these numbers do not apply. 
    They are, as confirmed by Hutch when I asked previously.
  • willcf15willcf15 Posts: 341 ✭✭✭
    Avenged said:
    willcf15 said:

    This all banks on the assumption that all cars within a rarity tier are equally likely to be selected. If this is not the case, these numbers do not apply. 
    They are, as confirmed by Hutch when I asked previously.
    Did they send this to you directly, or is there a thread somewhere? This would be great news!
  • AJTheCaveManAJTheCaveMan Posts: 1,366 ✭✭✭✭✭
    They have stated this as a fact for sure. 
  • willcf15willcf15 Posts: 341 ✭✭✭
    Awesome, thanks for the link!
  • milewski1015milewski1015 Posts: 2,123 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My reward CF for prelims:
    RQ11 Vauxhall Astra
    RQ13 El Camino
    RQ14 Escalade 
    RQ15 Fiat 124 Spider
    RQ21 Delta Integrale Evoluzione
  • lemmings99olemmings99o Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My reward CF for prelims:
    RQ11 Vauxhall Astra
    RQ13 El Camino
    RQ14 Escalade 
    RQ15 Fiat 124 Spider
    RQ21 Delta Integrale Evoluzione
    Was it worth the extra 100 gold on top of what carbon fibers normally cost? 
  • Destroyer2k11999Destroyer2k11999 Posts: 1,331 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My reward CF for prelims:
    RQ11 Vauxhall Astra
    RQ13 El Camino
    RQ14 Escalade 
    RQ15 Fiat 124 Spider
    RQ21 Delta Integrale Evoluzione
    Was it worth the extra 100 gold on top of what carbon fibers normally cost? 
    That's what he got as a tier reward. Not bought.
  • BugattiBugatti Posts: 3,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    When I open mine you guys going to mind if I post  video on here
  • FCOKFCOK Posts: 173 ✭✭✭
    Go buggati. Wanna see it just to stop this feeling of wanting to open 10packs.  😂
  • milewski1015milewski1015 Posts: 2,123 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Steer clear unless you want a lot of lancias. Opened 4. Best pull was the Alfa Romeo 4C. Got two Integrale Evoluzione II in the first pack, two more Integrale 16v and the 4C  
  • milewski1015milewski1015 Posts: 2,123 ✭✭✭✭✭
    And literally the first Alfa ceramic I open I pull the Giulia Veloce.
  • ZotZeZotZe Posts: 1,014 ✭✭✭✭✭
    10 packs... one A, rest fuse Bs.... many lancia 
    Not even Close worth
  • bluedogsnoopbluedogsnoop Posts: 677 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thank you both for your feedback on the packs. Made the decision to avoid easy for me. Best of luck in the event. 
  • milewski1015milewski1015 Posts: 2,123 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thank you both for your feedback on the packs. Made the decision to avoid easy for me. Best of luck in the event. 
    You too!
  • BugattiBugatti Posts: 3,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Watch "10 Italy Carbon Fibers! Lets do this! (Top Drives)" on YouTube
  • FCOKFCOK Posts: 173 ✭✭✭
    It's really helping me here this answers. @Bugatti don't come showing any pagani please. 😅
  • RobGripesRobGripes Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭✭✭
    @Bugatti will definitely win the lancia event
  • bullet_splatterbullet_splatter Posts: 666 ✭✭✭✭
    Well then, I must’ve gotten fairly lucky with the 10x CF packs. 
  • mauro07mauro07 Posts: 2,601 ✭✭✭✭✭
    nice pulls... i'd like this lancia and Giulia
  • Destroyer2k11999Destroyer2k11999 Posts: 1,331 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You're really not helping me not want to buy some packs there @Bugatti  ;)
  • BugattiBugatti Posts: 3,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You're really not helping me not want to buy some packs there @Bugatti  ;)
    That's why hutch  <3 me lol  :p
  • bullet_splatterbullet_splatter Posts: 666 ✭✭✭✭
    Bugatti said:
    You're really not helping me not want to buy some packs there @Bugatti&nbsp; ;)
    That's why hutch  <3 me lol  :p
    So if I said I pulled...

    2x Integrale 16v
    2x Integrale Evo II
    2x Guilia Veloce
    3x Alfa 4C
    Cinque
    Huarya

    Hutch will give me a Chiron, right?
  • BugattiBugatti Posts: 3,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Bugatti said:
    You're really not helping me not want to buy some packs there @Bugatti&nbsp; ;)
    That's why hutch  <3 me lol  :p
    So if I said I pulled...

    2x Integrale 16v
    2x Integrale Evo II
    2x Guilia Veloce
    3x Alfa 4C
    Cinque
    Huarya

    Hutch will give me a Chiron, right?
    Great pulls if you did wow!
  • bullet_splatterbullet_splatter Posts: 666 ✭✭✭✭
    Bugatti said:
    Bugatti said:
    You're really not helping me not want to buy some packs there @Bugatti&nbsp; ;)
    That's why hutch  <3 me lol  :p
    So if I said I pulled...

    2x Integrale 16v
    2x Integrale Evo II
    2x Guilia Veloce
    3x Alfa 4C
    Cinque
    Huarya

    Hutch will give me a Chiron, right?
    Great pulls if you did wow!
    Well since I got flagged for “abuse”....

  • BugattiBugatti Posts: 3,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Bugatti said:
    Bugatti said:
    You're really not helping me not want to buy some packs there @Bugatti&nbsp; ;)
    That's why hutch  <3 me lol  :p
    So if I said I pulled...

    2x Integrale 16v
    2x Integrale Evo II
    2x Guilia Veloce
    3x Alfa 4C
    Cinque
    Huarya

    Hutch will give me a Chiron, right?
    Great pulls if you did wow!
    Well since I got flagged for “abuse”....

    Very nice!
  • RobGripesRobGripes Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Who the heck flagged you!
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