Gold/Money Strategy Analysis ($ actually means in game cash, not real money dollars!)

willcf15willcf15 Posts: 351 ✭✭✭✭
edited September 2017 in General Discussion
Hey Guys,

Not sure if anyone's posted anything like this before, but if so, I haven't seen it.

I crunched a bunch of numbers in Excel to calculate some things that I was curious about such as:

-How much better is a Carbon Fiber Pack than a Ceramic Pack? A Ceramic pack than an Aluminum pack?
-What is each pack's average worth?
-How many packs of X variety do I need on average to get a Legendary/Epic/Ultra Rare, etc.
-What's the average amount of in-game money I'd have to spend to get a car of whatever tier? How much gold?

I decided to share my results, as I'm sure there are other nerds out there like me that want to know the numbers. Hopefully some of you guys find this interesting.

So to start off, Here's a table of basic info:

Pack Cost ($) Cost (G) Average Value
       
Plastic  $    3,250.00 59  $        783.75
Steel  $    7,500.00 129  $    1,232.50
Aluminum  $  15,000.00 239  $    2,533.75
Ceramic  $  32,500.00 499  $    8,195.00
Carbon Fiber   1499  $  33,437.50



The "average value" is what you could expect to get, on average, if you sold every car in a pack. I used a modified version of this value to calculate everything that I'll post further down. The modification is basically just assuming that you're not going to sell the best card that a pack is capable of yielding if you're buying that pack, which I thought was a pretty safe assumption.


Pack Average Packs/Car of Tier
  Common Uncommon Rare S.R. U.R Epic Legend
Plastic 0.20 0.77 66.67        
Steel 0.20 0.43 2.30 100.00      
Aluminum 0.20 0.20 0.77 4.26 66.67    
Ceramic   0.20 0.43 0.73 5.56 28.57 133.33
Carbon Fiber     0.20 0.46 0.91 6.67 33.33

The chart above shows how many packs of a variant you would have to buy to get one car of a given tier or higher. That's all well and good, but the next two charts are probably what you came for if you're still reading this:

Pack Average Cost/Car of Tier ($)
  Common Uncommon Rare S.R. U.R Epic Legend
Plastic  $          493  $      1,897  $  164,417        
Steel  $      1,254  $      2,690  $    14,408  $  626,750      
Aluminum    $      2,498  $      9,626  $    53,048  $     831,083    
Ceramic    $      4,861  $    10,522  $    17,676  $     135,028  $    694,429  $     3,240,667
Carbon Fiber              

Pack Average Cost/Car of Tier (G)
  Common Uncommon Rare S.R. U.R Epic Legend
Plastic 12 45 3933        
Steel 26 55 297 12900      
Aluminum   48 185 1017 15933    
Ceramic   100 216 363 2772 14257 66533
Carbon Fiber     300 689 1363 9993 49967

The first table shows how much in-game money you can expect to spend to get a car of a given tier or higher from each pack, while the second shows the same with gold. This assumes you are buying single packs, and does not take into account the current discount to Carbon Fiber packs. To reiterate, the $-based table assumes that you get the average amount back from each pack that you open that does not contain the highest class available for that pack. While this is probably a safe assumption for the highest tier number, it is an increasingly bad assumption as you move left on the table, causing errors in the ~5-10% range. 

Some interesting bits to note:

-It would take an average of over $3M in game dollars to get a legendary car from a Ceramic Pack
-It takes an average of ~50,000 gold to get a legendary from Carbon Fiber packs. It's worth noting that with the discount on multiple ceramic packs, the number drops from 66,533 gold to 53,333. While this is lower, if you are a collector type, you'll get many more total cars from this strategy.
-If all you want is E class cars to soup up a D class car, you're actually best off buying Plastic packs, since they still have a pretty good chance of giving you an E class car, but are much cheaper than Steel. That said, you do miss out on the 1 in 100 chance to get a C class car, and the chance of getting a D class car are about 28 times lower.

On the off chance that anyone bothered to read this far, I applaud your patience. I hope you at least for this somewhat interesting, and can set your expectations when opening a new pack accordingly haha.

If you guys would like more calculations, feel free to ask. One glaring thing would be how much it would cost to get a car of a tier from a pack without selling any cards, which I could do if you guys care.

Also, I do have an excel sheet with much prettier formatting that I could upload to Mediafire or something. This would also allow people to see the calculations and modify them to fit their play style, so let me know if you're interested.

I'd like to conclude by thanking Hutch for making a great game, and for providing enough information to run these calculations. I, for one, value being able to see my odds, no matter how poor they are.

On that subject, I'm sure seeing some of these numbers will upset many free to play/small-spending players like myself, as our odds of being able to compete with heavily paid players without a hefty dose of luck are looking pretty grim. I understand, but it would be awesome if we could keep this thread neutral and informative, (And maybe stop it from getting deleted...). With that in mind, please consider starting your own thread to express feelings on the paid/F2P gap.
Post edited by Hutch_Ian on

Comments

  • BaZziBaZzi Posts: 386 ✭✭✭
    Oh god, just skim over them and wut an amazing calculation.
  • willcf15willcf15 Posts: 351 ✭✭✭✭
    Edited, I had accidentally copy and pasted the old version of my charts. It's fixed now though :)
  • Hutch_IanHutch_Ian Posts: 234 Wrenchman
    Haha nice! Interesting way of selling back based on the outcome - did you work use a probabilistic outcome or rely on some assumption? Did you then work on some kind of combination of pack purchasing or something else?
  • HuacanachaHuacanacha Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Good analysis. Thanks for posting. The odds via packs are indeed slim, somewhat by necessity for the very top heavy FTP model to work effectively. Fortunately you can win or be given many decent cars by playing regularly which somewhat offsets the free vs paid gap. Until you come across a monster who must have spent $1k on the game to get the hand they have! I found a few of those already.
  • PichaiPichai Posts: 213 ✭✭✭
    Amazing !!  thanks
  • willcf15willcf15 Posts: 351 ✭✭✭✭
    No problem guys, glad you found it useful :)

    Ian - I assumed that you were buying each pack with the intent to get the best card in the pack, and therefore would not sell it. So, for example, with the Ceramic pack, even though the chance of getting a Legendary car is less than 1%, this chance increased the average value of the pack by ~$2,062, which is a solid 20% of the packs average resale value. Since you're probably buying these packs with the intention of keeping that legendary, it doesn't really make sense to increase the estimated resale value of the pack based on selling the legendary, so that number was subtracted from the average resale value when calculating costs. Of course, this doesn't affect the gold values, as cars can only be resold for in-game dollars.

    I realize that I should, then, redo all the calculations based on keeping all cards of the desired tier, but this would require me to completely rework the spreadsheet. The largest error would be on Epics from a Ceramic pack, probably in the neighborhood of 7%, and the rest would be very small due to the difference in value between an Epic and lesser cars. I can do it if you're curious though, it's probably good excel practice. I'm more of an physics type than a probability/statistics type, so this is a different kind of number crunching than I'm used to haha. 

    Regarding your second question, I'm not quite wrapping my head around what you're asking. Would you mind clarifying?

    Huacanacha - You're right, the free packs that they give out on occasion most definitely help. However, it looks like you'd need around 200 of the free premium specialized packs to get one legendary on average, so competing with those hands of legandaries will be a slow process for most of us. I suppose that's a reasonable model though, I just wish putting time into the game was a little less underpowered I guess. 
  • Hutch_BradHutch_Brad Posts: 77 Wrenchman
    @willcf15 -  Great work!
  • willcf15willcf15 Posts: 351 ✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2017
    Thanks @Hutch_Brad

    I've reworked the spreadsheet so that each rarity tier assumes you keep that tier or higher. In my opinion, these are more useful numbers, not that they turned out to be all that different:

    Pack Average Cost/Car of Tier ($)
      Common Uncommon Rare S.R. U.R Epic Legend
    Plastic  $          650  $      2,144  $  164,417        
    Steel  $      1,500  $      3,076  $    15,385  $  626,750      
    Aluminum    $      3,000  $    10,870  $    55,388  $     831,083    
    Ceramic    $      6,500  $    13,778  $    22,467  $     155,028  $    745,500  $     3,240,667
    Carbon Fiber

    So, for example, if I was buying Aluminum packs with the intent to save anything super rare or higher, and selling the rest, I can expect to spend $55,388 of in-game cash per card kept. Of course, as you can see, I'd be better off buying Ceramic packs for this purpose, as I'd only be spending $22,467 per card kept on average, plus I'd have a chance at getting even rarer cards.

    Since I spent all the time reworking the spreadsheet, it was easy to modify the calculations for a case where you want cars of a certain tier, but are keeping all the cards you get that are one below that tier for upgrading purposes. This is the chart that I plan on looking at when I want to feel disheartened know what packs to purchase, and how much money I'll be spending to get the cards I want.

    Pack Average Cost/Car of Tier ($)
      Common Uncommon Rare S.R. U.R Epic Legend
    Plastic  $          650  $      2,500  $  185,833        
    Steel  $      1,500  $      3,219  $    16,474  $  669,250      
    Aluminum    $      3,000  $    11,583  $    59,899  $     867,750    
    Ceramic    $      6,500  $    14,069  $    23,147  $     171,625  $    797,286  $     3,479,000
    Carbon Fiber              

    So, for example, if I'm buying Ceramic packs with the intent to use cards that are Epic rarity or higher, but keeping Ultra Rares for the purpose of merging with Epics, I can expect to spend $797,286 of in-game cash per Epic card.

    Alright, now that I've delved into these numbers way more than anybody else will probably care about, I believe I've eliminated the small bits of error found in previous in-game dollar charts. I really need to get a better hobby...

    As before, the other charts pertaining to gold and average gold/tier are unaffected. And of course, if you guys have anything else you want me to run numbers on, feel free to ask. No promises, but I'll think about it :p

    Cheers folks
    Post edited by willcf15 on
  • Hutch_IanHutch_Ian Posts: 234 Wrenchman
    To clarify $ here means in-game cash, not real world money $!  :D
  • ritter_seboritter_sebo Posts: 375 ✭✭✭
    @willcf15 really great work! and those numbers show, that at the moment, you cannot progress any further in "normal" rate only with multiplayer... you simply have no change in getting any amount of $ in that spheres (> 100000 ingame Dollar)
  • Hutch_IanHutch_Ian Posts: 234 Wrenchman
    The game has only been out for 3 weeks. If you got all S-Class straight away you'd have nothing left to aim for.
  • willcf15willcf15 Posts: 351 ✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2017
    @Hutch_Ian Yup, in game dollars. I stuck that clause in there a couple of times to avoid confusion, thanks for pointing that out.

    And I do agree, having all the S-class cars you wanted within three weeks of release would make the game go way too quick. However, I do think the rate at which money is earned, or the fact that there is a finite amount of resources to be earned in single player, may need to be rebalanced. A quick, back-of-the-napkin calculation says that it would take me about 3 years, 5 months to get 5 S-class cars to race with using the following assumptions:

    *$807.50 earned daily from selling E-class and below cars from earning Steel packs by placing between 2nd and 30th in the daily challenges
    *$3200 earned daily from reward cards of these events
    *$750 earned daily from selling reward cars of these events
    *$1025 earned daily average from daily event rewards (averaged)
    *$1664 is earned from doing two special events per week (direct reward, reward packs, reward cards and selling reward cars combined, averaged)
    *All money is used to purchase ceramic packs

    *49 G earned every day from watching advertisements
    *25 G earned every day from daily event rewards (averaged)
    *15 G earned every day from daily event reward cards
    *16.4 is earned from doing two special events per week (direct reward and reward cars combined, averaged)
    *All gold is used on Carbon Fiber packs

    *My luck is exactly average

    If you reconsider, and realize that you'll probably need to get at least, say, 20 S class cars to remain competitive in all sorts of events (on-road, off road, different country filters, drag vs handling, etc.), that time stretches to 13 years, 9 months, assuming that the cars you get are distributed exactly the way you need them to be. If you're forced to start buying the specialized packs, your odds get much worse, and your times get much longer. 

    This also doesn't include the additional money and A-class cars needed to upgrade said S class cars, cause you better believe that, a few years down the road, all the people that have S class cars now will have maxxed out S classes, but we'll just say that's cancelled out by the free packs Hutch gives out ;P

    This represents about 1 to 2 hours of play for me every day. I think these time spans are little bit long for an adamant, daily player of the game to have to wait just to become competitive with where many players already are. 

    Also, if I throw you guys $20 of real money cause I think you made a pretty good mobile game, that only puts me ahead by 21 days. That said, I know you don't really care all that much about small-spenders like me at the moment, and that's okay, I understand that this is a business. Just figured I'd add that for reference on how much the real life dollars that you guys need to stay afloat are worth in terms of in-game effort.

    Ian and Brad, I really appreciate your feedback and this back-and-forth communication. It makes me feel like my opinions are being considered, and whether they make any difference or not, it's worth quite a bit that you're willing to take the time to discuss with me, a random player. Just wanted to say thanks.

    @ritter_sebo Thanks, glad you found it useful :)
  • Hutch_IanHutch_Ian Posts: 234 Wrenchman
    We care about all our players no matter how much they spend. We've responded to quite a bit of feedback regardless of how much you spend in the game. Our 1,100 Gold offer (approx $9.99) was intended to give a pretty good boost to new players and some of them even got it without paying. Also, while the Legendaries are very good we have cars that are Epics with 25RQ. As we introduce more types of Event just having dry road Legendaries won't be the most important thing. There's even a post about how the Mercedes-Benz 280 GE beat the Legendary Mercedes-Benz G63 6x6 in a race - it's not all about the RQ or the rarity - it's how you play them.

    What matters most is that the game is fun. Personally I find the game as much fun at 40RQ as I do at 70RQ, or more. We want people to come back and play this game for years to come and we plan to support it further so don't think that what you see in the game now is the totality of what will be there.
  • willcf15willcf15 Posts: 351 ✭✭✭✭
    @Hutch_Ian

    I'm sorry, I fear I've made the wrong impression. I'm not trying to imply that you don't care about your players in that sense, because as you said, your presence on the forums shows otherwise. You guys have actually been really great. After crunching the numbers, I just feel that, no matter how much time I put into the game, I will never be able to compete with people who have large sums of money to throw at it. I did see that offer, I just realized early on that the amount of money I had to put into the game wouldn't get me as far as I wanted it to, which is just my personal opinion, and should be taken with a grain of salt. I am, after all, just one guy.

    On this subject, I actually didn't go into this game wanting to be competitive online, because the reality is that I've never had the time to put into any game to be good enough to compete globally. My first reaction was that I wanted to collect as many cars as I could in my garage. However, when I realized that it would cost ~$300 of real-life money to open up enough garage space to do this, I realized I had no choice but to play multiplayer as well as I could. 

    And of course, I wouldn't be here if I didn't really like the concept of the game. And I'm excited to see it evolve. If I could build 40 RQ teams and play against other people's 40 RQ teams with the same rewards, I definitely would. That sounds like a blast. Unfortunately, though, I don't have the garage space for anything under D class yet, since I need my best for other events, so I guess I'm in a little bit of a pickle lol. 
    Hutch_Ian said:
    There's even a post about how the Mercedes-Benz 280 GE beat the Legendary Mercedes-Benz G63 6x6 in a race
    I did see that, and I do think it's really cool that your physics engine (or however you ultimately decide who wins and loses a race) takes so many real-life parameters into account. If you take a look at that thread, I was one of the first commenters :P

    Again, I'm sorry I made you feel the need to defend yourself, as that was not my intention. I just wanted to share some calculations I ran and the results I got, in hopes to spread knowledge, and maybe save some other nerd a bunch of work. You and the Hutch team are doing a great job of treating all players well, and that will definitely help this game and community to flourish
  • Hutch_IanHutch_Ian Posts: 234 Wrenchman
    edited September 2017
    I'm not trying to be defensive, just trying to explain the approach we took and explain that we are working on delivering more. We appreciate your dedication to the game! :smiley:
  • BaZziBaZzi Posts: 386 ✭✭✭
    Hutch_Ian said:
    We care about all our players no matter how much they spend. We've responded to quite a bit of feedback regardless of how much you spend in the game. Our 1,100 Gold offer (approx $9.99) was intended to give a pretty good boost to new players and some of them even got it without paying. Also, while the Legendaries are very good we have cars that are Epics with 25RQ. As we introduce more types of Event just having dry road Legendaries won't be the most important thing. There's even a post about how the Mercedes-Benz 280 GE beat the Legendary Mercedes-Benz G63 6x6 in a race - it's not all about the RQ or the rarity - it's how you play them.

    What matters most is that the game is fun. Personally I find the game as much fun at 40RQ as I do at 70RQ, or more. We want people to come back and play this game for years to come and we plan to support it further so don't think that what you see in the game now is the totality of what will be there.
    Accordingly, the game's gonna have the RQ limit racing soon!? That's very good news for everyone here, but a big bad news for my wallet. Lol
  • Hutch_IanHutch_Ian Posts: 234 Wrenchman
    What do you mean when you say RQ limit exactly?
  • BaZziBaZzi Posts: 386 ✭✭✭
    edited September 2017
    Such an event that provides free selection on hand under the total of 100 or 70 RQ condition. So we have to choose and upgrade some good B or C class cars to mix up with my legendaries, of course with sharp strategy. 
  • willcf15willcf15 Posts: 351 ✭✭✭✭
    No problem guys, glad you found it useful :)

    Ian - I assumed that you were buying each pack with the intent to get the best card in the pack, and therefore would not sell it. So, for example, with the Ceramic pack, even though the chance of getting a Legendary car is less than 1%, this chance increased the average value of the pack by ~$2,062, which is a solid 20% of the packs average resale value. Since you're probably buying these packs with the intention of keeping that legendary, it doesn't really make sense to increase the estimated resale value of the pack based on selling the legendary, so that number was subtracted from the average resale value when calculating costs. Of course, this doesn't affect the gold values, as cars can only be resold for in-game dollars.

    I realize that I should, then, redo all the calculations based on keeping all cards of the desired tier, but this would require me to completely rework the spreadsheet. The largest error would be on Epics from a Ceramic pack, probably in the neighborhood of 7%, and the rest would be very small due to the difference in value between an Epic and lesser cars. I can do it if you're curious though, it's probably good excel practice. I'm more of an physics type than a probability/statistics type, so this is a different kind of number crunching than I'm used to haha. 

    Regarding your second question, I'm not quite wrapping my head around what you're asking. Would you mind clarifying?

    Huacanacha - You're right, the free packs that they give out on occasion most definitely help. However, it looks like you'd need around 200 of the free premium specialized packs to get one legendary on average, so competing with those hands of legandaries will be a slow process for most of us. I understand why Hutch chose this model, as it's clearly working, I just wish putting time into the game was a little less underpowered I guess. 
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