Ceramic Opening Analysis

bantel_catbantel_cat Posts: 969 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited November 2018 in General Discussion
So the Monster Mash 10 x Ceramic (1A, 1B) took me over 200 recorded Ceramics.

Time for some analysis given its a reasonable sample size, well not for S or A pulls but here goes anyway.
If you get to the bottom of this post you are likely as sad as me. If I ever meet you I'll buy you a pint for your perseverance :-)

Introducing Paulie's Spreadsheet of Joy/Woe*
* Delete as applicable (mainly woe for me)

EDIT: Spreadsheet available in post below.






Assumptions:

Pack openings are discrete events with a yes/no outcome so follow a Binomial distribution, at larger sample sizes could use a Normal distribution too.
Have combined Card 4/5 odds into one overall, reasonable for larger sample.
All Premiums have the same odds (seem to remember this isn't true for some manufacturers)
Once rarity has been decided you are equally likely to get any car in that tier - confirmed by Hutch.

Odds (%):

Ceramic
S - 0.75
A - 2.75
B - 14.5

Premium
S - 0.5
A - 2.1
B - 11.325

So for my 205 packs...

Expected Values (118 Ceramic, 87 Premiums ):

S - 118 x 0.0075 + 87 x 0.005 = 1.3
A - 118 x 0.0275 + 87 x 0.021 = 5.1
B - 118 x 0.145 + 87 x 0.11325 = 27.0

What did I actually get?

S - 0
A - 3
B - 26

So almost spot on for the Bs and somewhat unlucky with S/A but nothing really unusual.

Using a Binomial Calculator you can assess your 'luckiness'

Chance of getting B or better for me here is 16.27% or 33.4 cars expected.
I got 29.

Binomial Distribution says that the chance of getting more than 29 is 76%
So I am in the lowest quartile, pretty unlucky but there you go.

Where I was even more unlucky was with the 'quality'.
All 3 Epics were RQ23. Chances of that happening are roughly 2%


Now, this is where it gets really boring... still here?
Continuing on the quality theme, obviously you want to pull upper tier cars especially S/A/B (not 3 x RQ23!)
So what is the average RQ you can expect per Rarity drop? Yep I actually got the total cars of all RQ levels to calculate the average even factoring in those high RQ Epic Audis... so sad

S - 28.2
A - 24.7
B - 20.5
C - 16.4
D - 12.4
E - 8.5
F - 4.6

So what does my quality look like?

S - In my dreams
A - 23 (arrgghh!)
B - 20.6 (hurrah, I win!...just)
C - 16.4 (spot on)
D - 12.4 (spot on)
E - 8.4 (just under)

If anyone is interested in the spreadsheet let me know.
All you should need to do is put your pack pulls into the relevant worksheets like this:



Everything else should auto-calculate.
Post edited by bantel_cat on
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Comments

  • MettitiMettiti Posts: 1,767 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I love when people do these sort of things
    Did you factor in the lower odds given by premium cermaics ?(sounds counter intuitive)
  • kaje73kaje73 Posts: 320 ✭✭✭
    I’d love a copy
  • JasonOngJasonOng Posts: 106 ✭✭✭
    I'd love to have ur spreadsheet too! 
  • tichoblintichoblin Posts: 950 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Great job!
  • DeserTDeserT Posts: 502 ✭✭✭✭
    Great great job, especially in explaining the details of your study! I’d love to get a copy of the spreadsheet and I’m now sold into recording the drops from the ceramics I open 😂 
  • bantel_catbantel_cat Posts: 969 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thanks guys. I'll tidy it up a bit and make sure it works properly for pasting in your data. Should be able to do that this evening. 
  • AndreasSimmerAndreasSimmer Posts: 1,908 ✭✭✭✭✭
    great job! looking forward to that spreadsheet
  • prexprex Posts: 648 ✭✭✭✭
    Sadly, I was to lazy to take note that detailed. FYI, here is what I got since March:

    470 Ceramic packs (no Premiums!):

    (upper row is what I got, lower row is what chances suggest)

    50 Carbon Fiber packs:


    Seems like, I am just at the average. While I was above average at the beginning of September (5 Legends and 9 Epics in about 2 months), my luck turned away in the more recent time (nothing above B since end of September).
  • greddygreddy Posts: 1,882 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Really nice work, Thank You! 
  • AndreasSimmerAndreasSimmer Posts: 1,908 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thanks a lot! Will start using it.
  • BongermanBongerman Posts: 46 ✭✭✭
    You my man, are a legend!!! 
    I'm too lazy to do all this stuff but it's nice to see others actually making sure hutches drop rates are correct.
  • David_FookDavid_Fook Posts: 2,742 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Great work, have taken a look. I’m no stats guru, plus I’m using my phone so can’t see the calcs, but it’s telling me I should expect 2.3 super rares per ceramic... is this right? Seems high...
  • bantel_catbantel_cat Posts: 969 ✭✭✭✭✭
    TD01055 said:
    Great work, have taken a look. I’m no stats guru, plus I’m using my phone so can’t see the calcs, but it’s telling me I should expect 2.3 super rares per ceramic... is this right? Seems high...
    For a standard Ceramic you should expect 1.195 Super Rares per pack.

    You have highlighted the first error in the spreadsheet, have corrected.
    It was calculating the Expected C incorrectly.

    You can either download again or change B22 in the Calcs worksheet to be:

    =(B15*F15)+(B16*F16)
  • James_PearceJames_Pearce Posts: 1,365 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2018
    This is great, thanks. I might work out the odds of my pulls from four Ceramics last night: Tier 1 in Fast Track, Tier 2 in the Chevy event, the Infiniti daily reward  and one Ceramic that I bought for cash. Think that I’m right at the upper end of the normal distribution curve for these four, as I got:
    Three 7RQ
    Two 8RQ
    Three 9RQ
    Three 10RQ
    Two 13RQ
    One 14RQ
    One 16RQ
    One 17RQ
    One 18RQ
    and these:








  • bantel_catbantel_cat Posts: 969 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This is great, thanks. I might work out the odds of my pulls from four Ceramics last night: Tier 1 in Fast Track, Tier 2 in the Chevy event, the Infiniti daily reward  and one Ceramic that I bought for cash. Think that I’m right at the upper end of the normal distribution curve for these four, as I got:
    Three 7RQ
    Two 8RQ
    Three 9RQ
    Three 10RQ
    Two 13RQ
    One 14RQ
    One 16RQ
    One 17RQ
    One 18RQ
    and these:



    Yep you are definitely way up at the upper end of luckiness!
    Not only did you pull 2 x B and 1 x A, but the A you pulled is awesome and not the usual RQ23 **** that I get  :)
  • binnerbinner Posts: 721 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Not sure if I missed it in your explanation of the spreadsheet or not but if you pull an epic above RQ26 so say one of the 30RQ Audi’s how do you get it to show epic and not auto go to orange on the sheet for a legendary pull?
  • bantel_catbantel_cat Posts: 969 ✭✭✭✭✭
    binner said:
    Not sure if I missed it in your explanation of the spreadsheet or not but if you pull an epic above RQ26 so say one of the 30RQ Audi’s how do you get it to show epic and not auto go to orange on the sheet for a legendary pull?
    Yeah didn't think of that.
    Spreadsheet will incorrectly assume it is is an S based on its RQ.
    I'll have to figure out a way to handle this, easiest way probably will be to add a column 'Epic Audi > 26RQ' to act as a flag though you could theoretically get two in one pack. I'll have a think
  • James_PearceJames_Pearce Posts: 1,365 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I’m going to have to buy a lottery ticket. Bought another Ceramic for cash and pulled this:

    That’s five Ceramics in two days, pulling four Super Rare, two RQ21 Ultras, an RQ22 Ultra, and an RQ29 Epic. Watch me now have terrible luck for the next six months. 
  • bantel_catbantel_cat Posts: 969 ✭✭✭✭✭
    OK Version 1.2 is available now, same file so same link as above.

    The RQ29/30 Epic Audis are a headache.
    Normally you can use the RQ level to also determine the Rarity, except for these 7 cars.
    So you need two bits of information on them to be able to gather statistics accurately.

    But this needs to be simple, the whole point of the spreadsheet is to analyse your pulls.
    We don't want to be entering in all sorts of info for cars when we will sell/fuse 95% of them.

    So the approach I took is if you get an Epic Audi of RQ29 or RQ30, just enter 29A or 30A into the spreadsheet

    Stats before my imaginary mega lucky Ceramic..




    Entering the lovely RQ29 and RQ30 Audi I got in a Ceramic...



    Note that there are some more columns on the right to fill down.
    This gives...



    It has correctly counted them under Epics and increased the Epic average 'quality'

    There is probably a more elegant way of doing it but this seems to work.

    I've also added an Aluminium worksheet but not done anything with it yet.
    Does anyone want Steel and Plastic?  :)

    Changelog:
    04/11/18 - 1.0 - Original release
    06/11/18 - 1.1 - Correct Super Rare Count
    09/11/18 - 1.2 - Correctly handle Epic Audis, add Alu placeholder worksheet 

  • binnerbinner Posts: 721 ✭✭✭✭✭
    OK Version 1.2 is available now, same file so same link as above.

    The RQ29/30 Epic Audis are a headache.
    Normally you can use the RQ level to also determine the Rarity, except for these 7 cars.
    So you need two bits of information on them to be able to gather statistics accurately.

    But this needs to be simple, the whole point of the spreadsheet is to analyse your pulls.
    We don't want to be entering in all sorts of info for cars when we will sell/fuse 95% of them.

    So the approach I took is if you get an Epic Audi of RQ29 or RQ30, just enter 29A or 30A into the spreadsheet

    Stats before my imaginary mega lucky Ceramic..




    Entering the lovely RQ29 and RQ30 Audi I got in a Ceramic...



    Note that there are some more columns on the right to fill down.
    This gives...



    It has correctly counted them under Epics and increased the Epic average 'quality'

    There is probably a more elegant way of doing it but this seems to work.

    I've also added an Aluminium worksheet but not done anything with it yet.
    Does anyone want Steel and Plastic?  :)

    Changelog:
    04/11/18 - 1.0 - Original release
    06/11/18 - 1.1 - Correct Super Rare Count
    09/11/18 - 1.2 - Correctly handle Epic Audis, add Alu placeholder worksheet 

    Thanks for this!! Not like epic Audi pulls come that often but It’s nice to have the option to enter them. Been using the spreadsheet so far every pack I open, currently on 18 packs. Will post updates around every 100 or 200 packs 
  • bantel_catbantel_cat Posts: 969 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Version 2 completed, full of Aluminium goodness...



    Shame I didn't start recording Aluminiums earlier, the 4 packs prior to recording gave me 3 x C and 1 x B, incredible luck, why oh why cant that translate into Ceramic or CF.

    Have created a new Spreadsheet here:

    https://drive.google.com/open?id=1BjojeMUAzsCX-60g1mvvOjCrnywpQvq-

    If you are not interested in Aluminium then continue using the other.

  • bluedogsnoopbluedogsnoop Posts: 821 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My ceramic luck was always better than my CF luck and results so far seem to show this. 




  • FRFLeoFRFLeo Posts: 2
    Ive opened 20 ceramics and only got one B class car, drop rates on this game are ridiculous. and there are many events where tier 1 prize is this trash lol, yet no one seems to complain about it.
  • bantel_catbantel_cat Posts: 969 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My ceramic luck was always better than my CF luck and results so far seem to show this. 


    Yep that is pretty crazy good luck right there... nice
  • bantel_catbantel_cat Posts: 969 ✭✭✭✭✭
    FRFLeo said:
    Ive opened 20 ceramics and only got one B class car, drop rates on this game are ridiculous. and there are many events where tier 1 prize is this trash lol, yet no one seems to complain about it.
    Yeah that is pretty unlucky, 90% of the time you would expect to do better than that.
    However, I have gone 28 Ceramics with no B or better and others have gone longer. Things will (sort of) even out in the end

  • binnerbinner Posts: 721 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My ceramic luck was always better than my CF luck and results so far seem to show this. 


    Yep that is pretty crazy good luck right there... nice
    Ive also had some good luck ever since I started using your spreadsheet to record my pulls, maybe it’s the spreadsheet bringing us good luck 🤔
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