What are the chances?
I don't know if anyone has ever done this before, but I'd like to share some interesting calculations with you. It's been a while since I learned probability theory, so I'm not a 100% sure (pun intended) that my calculations are correct. So anyone who is an expert at this, feel free to correct me.
What got me thinking was that many of us complain a lot about a certain car missing from his collection, and just not being able to pull one. For me it's the RQ20 Ford Escort Rally, but I'm sure all of us have something. So I was wondering what the chances were to get that missing car, and comparing it to some other events' chances.
I hope the chart speaks for itself. The only thing that needs to be explained a bit is the Hungarian lottery thing. That means you have to guess 5 numbers out of 90, and if you guess right you win an unimagineable amout of money.
Here's the whole chart, to put everything into perspective:
And the chart of events with probability under 1%:
So yeah, seems like pulling that Escort from a CF is harder than pulling a legendary from a Ceramic, harder than pulling two Super Rares from an Alu pack. And the numbers get worse with every new Ultra Rare added to the game. That's why we all have unicorns.