Full disclosure please - RE: drop rates

1235

Comments

  • Twinkie_eeTwinkie_ee Posts: 190 ✭✭✭
    @justjukie
    81 pages probably
  • Ivo_KamburovIvo_Kamburov Posts: 799 ✭✭✭✭

    What are the odds of that? What are the odds of pulling 6 UR Maseratis when buying 9 IR CFs (7 if you exclude the 2 epics maybe, but idk how correct that logic is) and 0 Maserati CFs 🤔

  • HeissRodHeissRod Posts: 5,218 ✭✭✭✭✭
    56% of the URs in the IR update are Maseratis
  • TGPDTGPD Posts: 5,596 ✭✭✭✭✭
    For every 1 lucky player (i.e. @m4g), there are hundreds of millions of unlucky players (i.e. me).

    m4g might be inclined to post on here his insane pulls, but remember that he's only an extremely small sample of the game. I don't think the drop rates are rigged, the algorithm would simply take too much time to develop and is kinda useless.

    Honestly, a pity timer is always welcome on my side.
  • BoxtaSBoxtaS Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 27
    Every ticket I play in this final makes me think of this thread. 
    Here is what I’ve pulled from 6 IR CF & 1 Italian CF:



    Here are a few of the low RQ hands I’m seeing:



    I could post 10+ examples of this. They’re not great hands overall, but wow where are they getting all these S and A class cars? 

    @TGPD said above that for every lucky guy there are a million unlucky ones. But it seems the other way around right now...
  • DabigpDabigp Posts: 641 ✭✭✭✭✭
    BoxtaS said:
    Sorry to spam the thread but it’s just getting silly


    The new kind of whales have huuuuge wallets...
  • Blue2moroBlue2moro Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭✭✭
    BoxtaS said:
    Sorry to spam the thread but it’s just getting silly


    Can I play too?

  • Twinkie_eeTwinkie_ee Posts: 190 ✭✭✭
    Ok ill join the game

  • AndreasSimmerAndreasSimmer Posts: 1,046 ✭✭✭✭✭
    easy game.. and noteable that both didnt even open enough CF (if any) to fill their hand with atleast UR cars..


  • MSteeLMSteeL Posts: 956 ✭✭✭✭✭
    also 0 trophies... Then look at my awesome hand on the bot. He has no chance! 
  • Blue2moroBlue2moro Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A couple more from the late finals push.




    However, this one has to be the winner. Pushed into upper T2 with 2 Cs and a mothercuddling D, courtesy of 1 leg lambo...

  • evilprofesseurevilprofesseur Posts: 1,496 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I've seen legends down around 60th place. What the hell happened during this update? 
  • greddygreddy Posts: 1,678 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 27
    I've seen legends down around 60th place. What the hell happened during this update? 

    I feel that this event required much weaker hand for tier1 than Audi event. Yes there were legendaries around but most legendaries were weaker than maxed epics. 
  • Blue2moroBlue2moro Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Any Android experts out there know if it's possible to block one app from making any in app purchases. Sick of this ****. I use my play credit for many other purchases and if I have any it's just too tempting to buy gold.
  • baestbaest Posts: 507 ✭✭✭✭
  • O__VERO__VER Posts: 1,569 ✭✭✭✭✭
    That last one is actually ridiculous.
  • Blue2moroBlue2moro Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Just pulled a triple C from a ceramic. Did I see somewhere that it's higher odds for that than pulling a legendary? Wonder if support will trade these for a legendary...😒

  • baestbaest Posts: 507 ✭✭✭✭
    Blue2moro said:
    Just pulled a triple C from a ceramic. Did I see somewhere that it's higher odds for that than pulling a legendary? Wonder if support will trade these for a legendary...😒

    I had the same yesterday too lol.
  • Twinkie_eeTwinkie_ee Posts: 190 ✭✭✭
    Blue2moro said:
    Just pulled a triple C from a ceramic. Did I see somewhere that it's higher odds for that than pulling a legendary? Wonder if support will trade these for a legendary...😒

    Same chance for pulling an epic
  • Nacho101Nacho101 Posts: 476 ✭✭✭✭
    edited October 28
    After two years I have my first Italian car over UR, and no I did not pull it from a pack. I won the Maserati in qualifiers... :|

    Meanwhile... I see that others have noticed what I've noticed...


  • evilprofesseurevilprofesseur Posts: 1,496 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hutch_Tim said:
    O__VER said:
    Hutch_Tim said:
    Oh yes, to elaborated further: there's also no difference in odds for low RQ players, and no bias of drops towards upcoming events. As I think I also said last time, if we really did bias drops towards upcoming events we would shout about it as it would presumably boost pack sales! 
    I have to ask, @Hutch_Tim, because there is just SO MUCH of what feels like good evidence to the contrary — how do you know this? Is there any auditing done on your developers' code? How do you know that your developers haven't added in this type of thing without anyone else's knowledge?

    Okay, that's getting pretty conspiracy-theory! The way we check things are on track is to do periodic reviews of the distribution of what has been given out. I just checked now, and drop rates of CF's, Ceramics and premiums have remained consistent, as well as remaining consistent for new vs old players, and for low trophy vs high trophy players, ever since the CF drop rate change back in 2017.

    I've done a bit more digging into the good and bad luck on display in this thread though.

    Lucky and unlucky players
    M4G has luck equivalent to about 1 in 50,000 - wow. Now, this doesn't actually look like the first time they've started to play Top Drives, although it also doesn't look like they started over repeatedly until they got this lucky. There's a background level of a few very lucky players just due to sheer volume of new players every week, but they don't usually turn up in the forums to talk about it. Because M4G is an experienced player though they knew where to come to talk about it. Still crazily lucky... I shall follow their Top Drives career with great interest.

    Avenged is indeed very unlucky - in the unluckiest 1.8% of players by my calculation. Looking at players who have opened a similar number of packs, about 1.5%-2.5% are indeed that unlucky (I put a range on it because nobody has opened the exact same number of Ceramics/premiums/CFs, so it depends on exactly what you count as equivalent). Of course, the more packs you open, the more your results should tend towards the average, although I appreciate that's not much comfort.


    PL10 New Player / Low Trophy Luck and Legendary Lamborghinis
    As for the new player trend and what's going on in PL10,  even though drop rates have remained as stated, more Legendaries have dropped in PL10 than in previous updates. How could that be? Well, the obvious way: more packs being opened, and more relevant packs. There are four main reasons for that:

    1) The free Carbon Fiber gave out as many Legendaries in a day as would usually go out in a month (this is the biggest single factor). Remember new player brackets where everyone's best car was the 12C followed by the Z/28? The top 3% in their brackets now have an extra Legendary, and the top 20% an extra Epic.

    2) The Italian Renaissance 'Starter' CF with the slots and cash was the most popular CF offer ever. (The majority of players buying it have never spent real money, if you're wondering about that). Gold that people would usually save for slot offers and the like was going here - that makes sense, as it's also a good slot offer.

    3) People really like these Italian cars it seems: after PL9, sales of German Premiums spiked up for 4 weeks; after PL10, Italian Premiums have spiked up too, but 3 times as much as German premiums did.

    4) Italian Renaissance CFs are also popular, selling over 50% faster than German Renaissance, which in turn was in the top tier of most popular CF offers.

    Also note that fewer than half of all active players tend to qualify for a Final, and this one was no exception. Those who had been focussing on Italian Premiums / starter packs, or just got lucky, are of course more likely to qualify; the distribution within the Final will have more of these lucky players than the overall population.
    So competition in the Italian finals is going to be terrible. I'm sitting those out boys. 

    Thanks for a detailed summary though, really helps to paint an accurate picture

  • bantel_catbantel_cat Posts: 936 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Doupao said:
    Hutch_Tim said:
    O__VER said:
    Hutch_Tim said:
    Oh yes, to elaborated further: there's also no difference in odds for low RQ players, and no bias of drops towards upcoming events. As I think I also said last time, if we really did bias drops towards upcoming events we would shout about it as it would presumably boost pack sales! 
    I have to ask, @Hutch_Tim, because there is just SO MUCH of what feels like good evidence to the contrary — how do you know this? Is there any auditing done on your developers' code? How do you know that your developers haven't added in this type of thing without anyone else's knowledge?

    Okay, that's getting pretty conspiracy-theory! The way we check things are on track is to do periodic reviews of the distribution of what has been given out. I just checked now, and drop rates of CF's, Ceramics and premiums have remained consistent, as well as remaining consistent for new vs old players, and for low trophy vs high trophy players, ever since the CF drop rate change back in 2017.

    I've done a bit more digging into the good and bad luck on display in this thread though.

    Lucky and unlucky players
    M4G has luck equivalent to about 1 in 50,000 - wow. Now, this doesn't actually look like the first time they've started to play Top Drives, although it also doesn't look like they started over repeatedly until they got this lucky. There's a background level of a few very lucky players just due to sheer volume of new players every week, but they don't usually turn up in the forums to talk about it. Because M4G is an experienced player though they knew where to come to talk about it. Still crazily lucky... I shall follow their Top Drives career with great interest.

    Avenged is indeed very unlucky - in the unluckiest 1.8% of players by my calculation. Looking at players who have opened a similar number of packs, about 1.5%-2.5% are indeed that unlucky (I put a range on it because nobody has opened the exact same number of Ceramics/premiums/CFs, so it depends on exactly what you count as equivalent). Of course, the more packs you open, the more your results should tend towards the average, although I appreciate that's not much comfort.


    PL10 New Player / Low Trophy Luck and Legendary Lamborghinis
    As for the new player trend and what's going on in PL10,  even though drop rates have remained as stated, more Legendaries have dropped in PL10 than in previous updates. How could that be? Well, the obvious way: more packs being opened, and more relevant packs. There are four main reasons for that:

    1) The free Carbon Fiber gave out as many Legendaries in a day as would usually go out in a month (this is the biggest single factor). Remember new player brackets where everyone's best car was the 12C followed by the Z/28? The top 3% in their brackets now have an extra Legendary, and the top 20% an extra Epic.

    2) The Italian Renaissance 'Starter' CF with the slots and cash was the most popular CF offer ever. (The majority of players buying it have never spent real money, if you're wondering about that). Gold that people would usually save for slot offers and the like was going here - that makes sense, as it's also a good slot offer.

    3) People really like these Italian cars it seems: after PL9, sales of German Premiums spiked up for 4 weeks; after PL10, Italian Premiums have spiked up too, but 3 times as much as German premiums did.

    4) Italian Renaissance CFs are also popular, selling over 50% faster than German Renaissance, which in turn was in the top tier of most popular CF offers.

    Also note that fewer than half of all active players tend to qualify for a Final, and this one was no exception. Those who had been focussing on Italian Premiums / starter packs, or just got lucky, are of course more likely to qualify; the distribution within the Final will have more of these lucky players than the overall population.
    Hi Tim, thanks for the info. I have a question about the packs. When the packs are available (either reward or for purchase) do they have pre determined cars (the cars i can get from say buying 10 IR CFs are already determined/allocated when they r available in my account based in the drop rate based on a big pool) or each pack that I open is independent from other pack and each pack I will have is based in the drop rate for that particular pack?

    Also say I get a B car from t1 cf but third gets a S car from a ceramic. if we are to swap positions will we still get the same cars?

    Thanks
    Pretty sure each pack is a completely separate 'event'. 
    Cars are determined the second you buy/open the pack. Then displayed in ascending Rq order.
    So you never know if you were really lucky getting that S on card 1 or really really lucky getting it on card 2 (except of course it is a Cf and you get S and Sr, you know the Sr can only come from card  2)
  • AvengedAvenged Posts: 462 ✭✭✭✭

    Avenged is indeed very unlucky - in the unluckiest 1.8% of players by my calculation. Looking at players who have opened a similar number of packs, about 1.5%-2.5% are indeed that unlucky (I put a range on it because nobody has opened the exact same number of Ceramics/premiums/CFs, so it depends on exactly what you count as equivalent). Of course, the more packs you open, the more your results should tend towards the average, although I appreciate that's not much comfort.

    I  sincerely appreciate the brutal honesty Tim, even if like you said it doesn't exactly bring much comfort. It's a good enough equivalent to use as a yardstick.

    Here's waiting for that mythical S drop to bring some solace... Somewhere in 2099 🤷🏻‍♂️
Sign In or Register to comment.