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Drop Rates Are Broken!

LEGENDNADALEGENDNADA Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭✭✭
Hello everyone, I know many old players are pissed from this issue and we should have an open discussion with Hutch because it is getting out of limits.

First of all like others I opened the Elite pack + 13 ER Carbon fiber packs and did not get any decent pulls only weak 3 epics and many old players with high trophies getting all ultras and duplicated cards while in the other side all and I mean it all low trophies players getting great pulls with one or two packs (Legendaries and epics) as shown in images below also I got many screenshots for low trophy players from another bracket getting 2 to 3 legendaries. Is it possible? Is it even competitive for us (old players) to compete with these hands ? I started recording my carbon fiber pulls since the GE update and I did not get any Legendaries from 150 pack !! And no my luck weren’t good before. So please I am now out of my mind and need a clear clarification from you guys, if you guys boosting their drop rates it will take the game down, you can whether boost both or leave both when a new cars updates comes out.

  @Hutch_Robin @Hutch_Tim @Hutch_Dmitri

Please I need a clear clarification for:
-My drop rates after 150 packs with no legends
-new players with 100 trophy and a legend!



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Comments

  • LEGENDNADALEGENDNADA Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Feel free to post the low trophies players with high end legends :)
  • bodyboarder03bodyboarder03 Posts: 49 ✭✭
    I have close to 30k trophies, opened 16 ER carbons + elite got 2 extremely poor epics the rest UR. A lot of friends with similar trophy count were the same. 
  • lemmings99olemmings99o Posts: 1,727 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 29
    Quick calculation of the chances of you not getting a legendary out of 150 carbons is 0.010752768%, so just around 1 in 10,000.
    So if you're truthful in the amount of packs you've opened then yeah that drop rate sucks, but statistically speaking someone's gonna have that run of bad luck if the game has 10,000 active users.

    Regarding your ER packs, 3 epics out of 13 packs when the maths says around 2.6, so you're just above where you should be there.

    All this however isn't really relevant as you'd need a much bigger sample size of players to be able to realistically argue against the advertised drop rates.

    I'm also pretty sure this discussion has been done to death regarding new player drop rates and people claiming its rigged for new players.

    The problem you have is that out of all the newer players, the only ones you see posting are the ones with good drops, all the players that get normal or below normal drops don't bother posting, it's why you'll never get a fair comparison as the majority of players never post or even visit the forum.

    Side note: you also can't directly link new accounts to trophies, players can easily smurf most events and only concentrate on prize cars while keeping trophies relatively low.
  • LEGENDNADALEGENDNADA Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Quick calculation of the chances of you not getting a legendary out of 150 carbons is 0.010752768%, so just around 1 in 10,000.
    So if you're truthful in the amount of packs you've opened then yeah that drop rate sucks, but statistically speaking someone's gonna have that run of bad luck if the game has 10,000 active users.

    Regarding your ER packs, 3 epics out of 13 packs when the maths says around 2.6, so you're just above where you should be there.

    All this however isn't really relevant as you'd need a much bigger sample size of players to be able to realistically argue against the advertised drop rates.

    I'm also pretty sure this discussion has been done to death regarding new player drop rates and people claiming its rigged for new players.

    The problem you have is that out of all the newer players, the only ones you see posting are the ones with good drops, all the players that get normal or below normal drops don't bother posting, it's why you'll never get a fair comparison as the majority of players never post or even visit the forum.

    Side note: you also can't directly link new accounts to trophies, players can easily smurf most events and only concentrate on prize cars while keeping trophies relatively low.
    Okay I only see the low trophies players with good pulls, and I know around 50 player with high trophy and not even one legend ! Non sense all players in my bracket are low trophies with one or more legends 
  • lemmings99olemmings99o Posts: 1,727 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Quick calculation of the chances of you not getting a legendary out of 150 carbons is 0.010752768%, so just around 1 in 10,000.
    So if you're truthful in the amount of packs you've opened then yeah that drop rate sucks, but statistically speaking someone's gonna have that run of bad luck if the game has 10,000 active users.

    Regarding your ER packs, 3 epics out of 13 packs when the maths says around 2.6, so you're just above where you should be there.

    All this however isn't really relevant as you'd need a much bigger sample size of players to be able to realistically argue against the advertised drop rates.

    I'm also pretty sure this discussion has been done to death regarding new player drop rates and people claiming its rigged for new players.

    The problem you have is that out of all the newer players, the only ones you see posting are the ones with good drops, all the players that get normal or below normal drops don't bother posting, it's why you'll never get a fair comparison as the majority of players never post or even visit the forum.

    Side note: you also can't directly link new accounts to trophies, players can easily smurf most events and only concentrate on prize cars while keeping trophies relatively low.
    Okay I only see the low trophies players with good pulls, and I know around 50 player with high trophy and not even one legend ! Non sense all players in my bracket are low trophies with one or more legends 
    I've been playing over 1000 days according to my oldest car in my garage and have over 50k trophies so would probably be considered an older player with a decent trophy count, opened 2 ER packs, got 1 epic and 2 ultra, so above the droprates, also a legendary koenigsegg from a random ceramic. Does that mean I'm the exception to your rule?
  • LEGENDNADALEGENDNADA Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭✭✭
    O__VER said:
    It is pretty glaringly obvious. I've been warned before for being vocal about this but until Hutch gets their drop rates independently audited, I can not believe them.

    There are just too many examples of low trophy players with multiple legendaries. You can tell they haven't opened many packs either, because those legendaries are often interspersed with SRs or bad URs.

    Yet you can look at an entire group of 20 or more veterans. The type of players to open all the CFs, or at least most of them, and there might only be a couple of legendaries between them.

    We've had this discussion many times and it's clear it is a huge sore point for long time players. Hutch would do well to actually start talking about it.
    I think it is our simplest rights to have a decent discussion about it, even if it is true that they manipulated drop rates for the new players to make a competitive environment for the game I’m really good about it, but then we have a problem everytime an update drops and only new players getting the best high end cars and old players left with ultra rares and low epics, it’s totally unfair for the old players spending to be atleast competitive, I’m 55k trophies and I’ve lost to 150 trophy! Please Hutch can we decently talk about it:)
  • LEGENDNADALEGENDNADA Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Quick calculation of the chances of you not getting a legendary out of 150 carbons is 0.010752768%, so just around 1 in 10,000.
    So if you're truthful in the amount of packs you've opened then yeah that drop rate sucks, but statistically speaking someone's gonna have that run of bad luck if the game has 10,000 active users.

    Regarding your ER packs, 3 epics out of 13 packs when the maths says around 2.6, so you're just above where you should be there.

    All this however isn't really relevant as you'd need a much bigger sample size of players to be able to realistically argue against the advertised drop rates.

    I'm also pretty sure this discussion has been done to death regarding new player drop rates and people claiming its rigged for new players.

    The problem you have is that out of all the newer players, the only ones you see posting are the ones with good drops, all the players that get normal or below normal drops don't bother posting, it's why you'll never get a fair comparison as the majority of players never post or even visit the forum.

    Side note: you also can't directly link new accounts to trophies, players can easily smurf most events and only concentrate on prize cars while keeping trophies relatively low.
    Okay I only see the low trophies players with good pulls, and I know around 50 player with high trophy and not even one legend ! Non sense all players in my bracket are low trophies with one or more legends 
    I've been playing over 1000 days according to my oldest car in my garage and have over 50k trophies so would probably be considered an older player with a decent trophy count, opened 2 ER packs, got 1 epic and 2 ultra, so above the droprates, also a legendary koenigsegg from a random ceramic. Does that mean I'm the exception to your rule?
    For a bigger sample yes you are an exception, and you got the legendary from random ceramic, I always get my legendaries from ceramics barely get a legend from carbon fiber packs, my last 215 packs only got me 2 legends and some epics, 
  • HeissRodHeissRod Posts: 7,448 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Over the last 645 Carbons (mixed Premium & regular), I've pulled 140 epics and 18 Legendaries.
    Over the last 1,921 Ceramics (mixed again), I've pulled 55 epics and 11 Legendaries.

    Luck is different for everyone.  :)
  • bodyboarder03bodyboarder03 Posts: 49 ✭✭
    more...
  • LEGENDNADALEGENDNADA Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭✭✭
    HeissRod said:
    Over the last 645 Carbons (mixed Premium & regular), I've pulled 140 epics and 18 Legendaries.
    Over the last 1,921 Ceramics (mixed again), I've pulled 55 epics and 11 Legendaries.

    Luck is different for everyone.  :)
    I am sorry but luck should not be different for everyone, loot boxes have its own drop rates so the (luck) as you said should not be totally different, whats the point of playing if there is no drop rates should I wait for a legendary after 1000 carbon packs ?
  • LorskyLorsky Posts: 67 ✭✭✭
    Bought all 15 ER CFs and only got a 66rq epic...  :):) :)well~
  • BimbotondoBimbotondo Posts: 35 ✭✭
    edited August 29
    ONLY FOR THESE FINALS I bought:

    15 CF
    10 Ceramics
    115 Premium Packs

    Yes I bought 8 Gold pack 6 - more than 100,000 gold spent, considering what I saved.

    And please include the CF and Elite pack issued after the update was released...
    Not a single legendary. 

    And after all of this I even asked Hutch to swap one of my duplicate legendaries for a new one, even with a "give 2 get 1" if necessary - But this is EXTREMELY unfair


    Post edited by Bimbotondo on
  • HeissRodHeissRod Posts: 7,448 ✭✭✭✭✭
    HeissRod said:
    Over the last 645 Carbons (mixed Premium & regular), I've pulled 140 epics and 18 Legendaries.
    Over the last 1,921 Ceramics (mixed again), I've pulled 55 epics and 11 Legendaries.

    Luck is different for everyone.  :)
    I am sorry but luck should not be different for everyone, loot boxes have its own drop rates so the (luck) as you said should not be totally different, whats the point of playing if there is no drop rates should I wait for a legendary after 1000 carbon packs ?
    Isn’t that how statistics work?  Not everyone is going to have the same pack “luck” (results) for their own sample size.  

    P.S.  I had a near 9-10 month run and around 900 Ceramics without a Legendary last year.
  • StealthFTStealthFT Posts: 337 ✭✭✭
    70k trophies. Around 6 mil in ceramics since PL12. Elite, special, quali & prelim ER CF packs, and this is the best I can do. Stopped after getting 2 ER CFs for the finals because what's the point?


  • HeissRodHeissRod Posts: 7,448 ✭✭✭✭✭
    ONLY FOR THESE FINALS I bought:

    15 CF
    10 Ceramics
    115 Premium Packs

    Yes I bought 8 Gold pack 6 - more than 100,000 gold spent, considering what I saved.

    And please include the CF and Elite pack issued after the update was released...
    Not a single legendary. 

    And after all of this I even asked Hutch to swap one of my duplicate legendaries for a new one, even with a "give 2 get 1" if necessary - But this is EXTREMELY unfair and unclear.

    Too many P2W players complaining, it cannot be random.
    Too many players with low trophies unpacking ER legendaries too easily.

    You spent the majority of your money on packs that are the least likely to drop a Legendary and then complain that you didn’t get one?  Your gambler’s guilt is misplaced, my friend.
  • BimbotondoBimbotondo Posts: 35 ✭✭
    edited August 29
    rabookie said:
    and Hutch have made sure that no matter how many upgrades you put in your crappy epic you just cant beat a koenigsegg with that 2 drag races.making sure most old players can’t get t1.thats obviously set intentionally.and its very disgraceful , disgusting
    I don't think that's the case but it's difficult to compete without a koenigsegg in these finals.
    Post edited by Bimbotondo on
  • HeissRodHeissRod Posts: 7,448 ✭✭✭✭✭
    rabookie said:
    and Hutch have made sure that no matter how many upgrades you put in your crappy epic you just cant beat a koenigsegg with that 2 drag races.
    You’re wrong in this statement.
  • DoupaoDoupao Posts: 381 ✭✭✭
    i opened all ER CF and numerous ceramics and ER ceramics. As a long term spender on this game I have found this is getting getting more and more ridiculous. I have not been getting good pulls since IR updates and I have seen new names with numerous top end s cars and most older player got nothing. Call it conspiracy theory or what but I it could happen to one or two player with good s pulls but dont think an average player would get a couple of good s and numerous good epic cars. They must be spending too to get that many packs. Then why the new players are getting good pulls but old players barely get anything. It makes me wonder if hutch has put something in place to allow new spenders to get good cars which makes sense from revenue generating perspective so they keeps on spending. For old players, Hutch have got enough from them so hutch dont really care them compare to.the.new players where they could squeeze more out of them. An independent audit on their drop rates would prove if it is really people are lucky or there is.something else. The way hutch did the update and event is purely for.miney grabbing as.if.u.dnt have a good dragger then you r pretty much done for the final. This is encouraging gambling!
  • D3nzelloD3nzello Posts: 126 ✭✭✭
    well, just for the records, Im at 10k trophys and opened all 15 ER, got me 9 epics low to mid RQ range.
  • LittleEnosBurdetteLittleEnosBurdette Posts: 3,143 ✭✭✭✭✭
    ONLY FOR THESE FINALS I bought:

    15 CF
    10 Ceramics
    115 Premium Packs

    Yes I bought 8 Gold pack 6 - more than 100,000 gold spent, considering what I saved.

    And please include the CF and Elite pack issued after the update was released...
    Not a single legendary. 

    And after all of this I even asked Hutch to swap one of my duplicate legendaries for a new one, even with a "give 2 get 1" if necessary - But this is EXTREMELY unfair and unclear.

    Too many P2W players complaining, it cannot be random.
    Too many players with low trophies unpacking ER legendaries too easily.

    Did they do the swap?
  • LittleEnosBurdetteLittleEnosBurdette Posts: 3,143 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Are the drop rates boosted? Hmm, if I’m honest I don’t think they are. 

    Is by Hutch simply saying “no we are not boosting them” enough to convince everyone that they aren’t doing it? Simple answer is no. 
  • OzzmanOzzman Posts: 1,824 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well I don't think drop rates are boosted either. But they don't really need to do that in order to achieve the effect decribed above. I think it was confirmed already that packs are not created at the time you open them, they're sort of pre-generated, and when you open a pack, you just get the next in line. However it's not that hard to reorder these packs in a way that new players get more of the 'good' packs earlier, and then their luck just goes south later. The drop rates will still be as advertised throughout, let's say a 1000 packs, but they get the good stuff at the beginning to help them catch up, and make them believe it will always be like that. But after that packs will be just random, like it is now for most of us. It's all just a theory, I'm not saying that's how it's done.
  • AndreasSimmerAndreasSimmer Posts: 1,927 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 29
    RobGripes said:
    An independent audit costs virtually nothing. 

    Not performing one is suspicious in itself. Gambling sites have them done to prove their integrity. 

    Why not just get it done? 
    THIS. If Hutch has nothing to hide they should do this and end the discussion. If they stay silent and ignore it once again, well, everyone make their own conclusion about this. I think more than enough money is spend on this casino game each week to justify this.
    On other cool news: my acc is free again, *******!
    Congrats @LEGENDNADA for taking the lead in our "find the lowest rq Egg competition", previous lowest was 350 trophys, you lowered the bar, well done.
  • BimbotondoBimbotondo Posts: 35 ✭✭
    ONLY FOR THESE FINALS I bought:

    15 CF
    10 Ceramics
    115 Premium Packs

    Yes I bought 8 Gold pack 6 - more than 100,000 gold spent, considering what I saved.

    And please include the CF and Elite pack issued after the update was released...
    Not a single legendary. 

    And after all of this I even asked Hutch to swap one of my duplicate legendaries for a new one, even with a "give 2 get 1" if necessary - But this is EXTREMELY unfair.

    Did they do the swap?
    Not yet. I am waiting for their answer hoping that they are reasonable.
  • bluedogsnoopbluedogsnoop Posts: 854 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Bimbotondo said:
    Not yet. I am waiting for their answer hoping that they are reasonable.
    I know they have swapped in the past for some, but I would have kept quiet about it. If they see you have posted on the forum they will know that they will get smashed for requests from others, so will probably not be inclined to assist you.

    Just curious how many people complaining about the drop rates keep a record of every single pack they open? 
  • RobGripesRobGripes Posts: 2,535 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 29
    Ozzman said:
    Well I don't think drop rates are boosted either. But they don't really need to do that in order to achieve the effect decribed above. I think it was confirmed already that packs are not created at the time you open them, they're sort of pre-generated, and when you open a pack, you just get the next in line. However it's not that hard to reorder these packs in a way that new players get more of the 'good' packs earlier, and then their luck just goes south later. The drop rates will still be as advertised throughout, let's say a 1000 packs, but they get the good stuff at the beginning to help them catch up, and make them believe it will always be like that. But after that packs will be just random, like it is now for most of us. It's all just a theory, I'm not saying that's how it's done.

    I wonder if this is how it is also. Artificially boost drops at the beginning and then artificially have them reduce later. Over the long term, they adhere closely to the published drop rates. However, I would consider this as somewhat fraudulent, if it is indeed happening.

    Each pack should have an equal chance which would be a reasonable assumption by the description on the packs. 


    Post edited by RobGripes on
This discussion has been closed.