Drop Rates Are Broken!

13

Comments

  • Benji1996Benji1996 Posts: 35
    You wanne have a discussion about this with hutch? But if they say that it isn’t true you wont believe them.. so what’s the point? I’m sure that if you look at the drop rates vs all the packs opened, they would be above expected to be honest. Does that mean someone can’t have a bad streak? Not at all. We’ve all been there. I’m sure everyone also has had a good streak allready. But yeah, the difference is that no one complains about that. That’s why we only see the bad streaks wich makes it look like the drop rates aren’t what is promised. 
  • PimPim Posts: 139 ✭✭✭
    Benji1996 said:
    (...) But if they say that it isn’t true you wont believe them(...)
    Are you reading minds or what's happening here?
    The point is that a lot of players are upset. Some transparency would help here. Why don't we have some basic counters showing the total CFs, Ceramics and Premiums opened? Put them somewhere in the Achievements screen, and we could calculate our drops ourselves and compare across the payerbase. 
  • JackyQuJackyQu Posts: 1,359 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Of Course..
  • Benji1996Benji1996 Posts: 35
    Pim said:
    Benji1996 said:
    (...) But if they say that it isn’t true you wont believe them(...)
    Are you reading minds or what's happening here?
    The point is that a lot of players are upset. Some transparency would help here. Why don't we have some basic counters showing the total CFs, Ceramics and Premiums opened? Put them somewhere in the Achievements screen, and we could calculate our drops ourselves and compare across the payerbase. 
    Even if they do, there will be moments the % will be below promised and moments where it will be above promised. This wont change a thing. People should stop blaming bad streaks on “changed” or “biased” droprates. 

    Compare it with a lottery game we have in Europe: euromillions. Chances of winning it are 1 in 15000000. Every game, more then 15000000 million people buy a ticket. Yet the jackpot isn’t supposed to fall because of that. Why? Because every ticket has that chance on it’s own. Same with the droprates on here. 2.5% doesn’t mean that when you open 100packs you should get 2,5 s cars. It means that for each of those 100 packs, there is a chance of 2,5% of getting an s. I don’t see why this is so hard to get. Yeah some people are lucky but luck doesn’t hang around the same person for ever...
  • HeissRodHeissRod Posts: 7,447 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Pim said:
    Benji1996 said:
    (...) But if they say that it isn’t true you wont believe them(...)
    Are you reading minds or what's happening here?
    The point is that a lot of players are upset. Some transparency would help here. Why don't we have some basic counters showing the total CFs, Ceramics and Premiums opened? Put them somewhere in the Achievements screen, and we could calculate our drops ourselves and compare across the payerbase. 
    If people are that concerned with drop rates, why aren't they already keeping track of your packs openings?  If they are already doing that, then pack counters aren't going to alleviate anything.  Based on @LEGENDNADA's original post, he at least counts, so how would counters help him?  The only way counters would help is if they also counted how many of each rarity type you pull, but again, if you're concerned with that, why isn't someone already doing it themselves. 
  • RobGripesRobGripes Posts: 2,534 ✭✭✭✭✭
    AslanV said:
    I am recording my pack since May,

    Didn't know you can have your record from the support Oo

    I will ask, seems interesting (even if I have more than 5 month of non recording)

    I asked them once, and they included some prize cars in that. Their data system isn't as robust as you'd like in getting questions answered. I'm not blaming them, I'm just saying it isn't.


  • LEGENDNADALEGENDNADA Posts: 1,092 ✭✭✭✭✭


    25€ with three legends 
    me 150€ with no legends :)
  • 0171801718 Posts: 498 ✭✭✭
    I cant believe you guys really are having this discussion. There are several players tracking their Drops over a long run and their Findling is that the drop rates are accurate. 
  • evilprofesseurevilprofesseur Posts: 1,841 ✭✭✭✭✭
    01718 said:
    I cant believe you guys really are having this discussion. There are several players tracking their Drops over a long run and their Findling is that the drop rates are accurate. 

    I can easily buy this. I'd like to make sure low throphy players don't have better ones
  • AslanVAslanV Posts: 816 ✭✭✭
    We did give out some free packs recently. If we just take the free ER pack given out last week, estimating from our player numbers and probability of a drop, it's likely that the Legendaries have dropped to at least a few hundred players, some of whom were relatively new to the game.
    This
  • TopDrives40778TopDrives40778 Posts: 2,204 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Case closed
  • lemmings99olemmings99o Posts: 1,719 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Quick, lock this thread before someone gets QAnon to investigate hutch lol
  • O__VERO__VER Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's not really case closed, it's simply all we'll ever get out of Hutch.

    We're not basing our theories on people sharing their drops, were basing it on seeing almost every low trophy player we come across having an ER legendary while the same percentages don't apply to us experienced players.

    While I admit it is a conspiracy theory, it still looks bad and the adamancy of the Hutch employees we get to talk to has always made me wonder... we don't get to talk to the actual developers of the game at all. It's only ever Robin, Tim and Dmitri who don't touch any code as far as my understanding goes.

    What's stopping a developer from adding in code to make legendaries drop more often for low trophy players? Robin, Tim and Dmitri probably would never know. If I was a developer of a middling mobile game, the thought would certainly cross my mind. It's job security. If Top Drives dies, Hutch don't really have another cash cow. Getting new players addicted while the old players drop off from frustration and anger makes a lot of sense.

    I know it's a stretch but I wanted to suggest the thought I've had for probably more than a year now.

    BUT... this whole discussion is entirely pointless anyway because nobody would ever admit it if it was true.
  • HeissRodHeissRod Posts: 7,447 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 1
    O__VER said:
    It's not really case closed, it's simply all we'll ever get out of Hutch.

    We're not basing our theories on people sharing their drops, were basing it on seeing almost every low trophy player we come across having an ER legendary while the same percentages don't apply to us experienced players.
    While people are running across these low-trophy players with legendaries, are they also running across their spending habits?  The number of trophies doesn't mean jack.  Someone with 5 trophies can open a jack load of unlimited Premium packs, too.

    O__VER said:
    BUT... this whole discussion is entirely pointless anyway because nobody would ever admit it if it was true.
    .....And no one would every believe any Hutch employee that would come forward and say the conspiracy theories weren't true.  People believe what they want to believe.  This is another reason this discussion is pointless.
  • bluedogsnoopbluedogsnoop Posts: 843 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 1
    O__VER said:
    It's not really case closed, it's simply all we'll ever get out of Hutch.

    BUT... this whole discussion is entirely pointless anyway because nobody would ever admit it if it was true.

    There is so much to unpack here but I really do not have the energy. So I will keep it short

    - A Hutch employee has made a public statement on a forum they own and run stating that packs are not manipulated. Do you not think they would consider the legal implications of stating this if it was not true? 

    - Rogue Developer? Really? He/She is allegedly making a game changing decision on their own that no other developer would ever spot as the code is only ever handled by one person. (/s) Right. 

    - You are still seeing the low count trophy players with legendaries because you want to see them. They are not everywhere. I was rolling around in the 300s at the weekend (no hand whatsoever) and I saw almost exclusively low trophy players, running Ultras and Supers almost entirely.

    Yes it is pointless. Nobody would admit to it because it is not true. I am more willing to believe aliens at Roswell than this.



  • Yama_sanYama_san Posts: 346 ✭✭✭
    edited September 1
    I don't know if drop rates are broken or manipulated (I know there are the same talks and doubts for online poker while the RNG are theoritically checked by third parties), but based on my own humble case, I have some doubts (and quite some frustration) as well.
    Playing for more than 500 days, and I pulled my (only) 5 Leg on my first 300 days, and nothing since then (even if I can't complain too much about Epics pulls lately), while technically I got a better and better garage and then opened more and more Premium and CF packs. Maybe still not enough for a good odds study on my case, ok maybe.

    Still I think there would be less discussions also if the odds for pulling Leg were less ridiculous.
    It's even more ridiculous seeing the number of Leg in the game.
    It gives me the feeling that unless becoming what we call a whale, I would (maybe) have 1 or 2 more Leg big maximum in one year.

    I know the games are different, but I was also playing Hearthstone, and it was lot more manageable to pull Legendary cards from time to time, even though there are not as many Leg cards in HS compared to Top Drives.
    Another difference is that all the packs there have the same value, so it's all about the quantity of packs you win or buy if you want to higher your chances (but I agree this would not work well with TD).
    But at least they introduced a pity timer some time ago, guaranteeing a Legendary card every x packs.
    I would have more respect for TD if a such feature would also exist, if the odds remain so ridiculously low.

    I like TD but I get more and more bored about never pulling any Leg. I'm not a 100% F2P player since I sometimes spent a few bucks, but I almost stopped, feeling most of CF packs I could open were a rip-off (or let's say they clearly don't worth the amount in gold).
    I feel this is kind of thing (too low odds) is quite demotivating, and is kind of frustrating thing could be one of the reason pushing me to leave the game in some future.
  • HeissRodHeissRod Posts: 7,447 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 1
    Yama_san said:
    Playing for more than 500 days, and I pulled my (only) 5 Leg on my first 300 days, and nothing since then (even if I can't complain too much about Epics pulls lately), while technically I got a better and better garage and then opened more and more Premium and CF packs. Maybe still not enough for a good odds study on my case, ok maybe.
    This is a mistake a lot of people make when being upset about this subject.  The number of days you have been playing is meaningless.  What matters is the number of packs you have opened.  The odds are the same for someone who opens 50 packs in one day compared to someone who opens 50 packs in 6 months.

    Yama_san said:
    Still I think there would be less discussions also if the odds for pulling Leg were less ridiculous.
    It's even more ridiculous seeing the number of Leg in the game.
    You're contradicting yourself here.  In one statement, you want to be able to pull legendaries more often, but in the other you aren't happy about the number of legendaries in the game.  You can't have both.
  • GT47LMGT47LM Posts: 424 ✭✭✭✭
    I opened 15 ER packs and got 2 Epics 0 legendaries. Have been playing since the beginning of the game. When I asked support about this they closed the ticket instead and ignored the question. I already knew I was going to get the "look at the probabilities" answer so whatever. Didn't expect anything from them like always
  • HeissRodHeissRod Posts: 7,447 ✭✭✭✭✭
    GT47LM said:
    I opened 15 ER packs and got 2 Epics 0 legendaries. Have been playing since the beginning of the game. When I asked support about this they closed the ticket instead and ignored the question. I already knew I was going to get the "look at the probabilities" answer so whatever. Didn't expect anything from them like always
    What exactly did you contact support about?  What was the issue?
  • AndreasSimmerAndreasSimmer Posts: 1,927 ✭✭✭✭✭
    HeissRod said:
    GT47LM said:
    I opened 15 ER packs and got 2 Epics 0 legendaries. Have been playing since the beginning of the game. When I asked support about this they closed the ticket instead and ignored the question. I already knew I was going to get the "look at the probabilities" answer so whatever. Didn't expect anything from them like always
    What exactly did you contact support about?  What was the issue?
    May i ask, do you work for support? Else... why dont you give them a chance to answer on their own?

  • GT47LMGT47LM Posts: 424 ✭✭✭✭
    I had a ticket originally open about another issue when I asked about my pulls because I can't open a new ticket without them closing it first. They responded with 2 paragraphs of apologies I think it was about about their late response and closed my ticket. Never acknowledged my question or my statement of how I am pretty much going to quit because of horrible pulls I have been receiving (since the beginning of opening my account). I only pulled 2 Epics out of 24,000 gold worth of packs. So yeah, that bothered me
  • RawelRawel Posts: 946 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I believe no one intentionally tampers with drop rates but seeing how every little update causes the most random bugs all over the place, how can I be sure that drop rates are always constant and never bugged?
  • 0171801718 Posts: 498 ✭✭✭
    edited September 2
    Ozzman said:
    The chances of good stuff from packs is so low, and the simple fact is one player opening 2 ceramics could pull better than a chump like me opening 15 CF
    Yepp, this is a really good point here. Low drop rates can give you the impression that something's not right, because your expectations and the reality can sometimes be very different.
    Just think about this:
    Take a 100 players who all open just one CF pack. 3 of them will pull at least one legendary, and obviously brag about it.
    Take a 100 players who all open all 15 CFs for the finals. 63 of them will not pull a single legendary, and rant about it.
    So for every lucky guy, there will be 21 others who feel disappointed because of the 24k gold wasted. That's quite a difference.
    This is a very plastic description of the odds and the psychology related to it.  Thank you, once again!

    (And by plastic I am not referring to the worst pack you can buy for cash in top drives ;-))
This discussion has been closed.